BJP will Uproot Congress in 2014 Lok Sabha Election

Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh on Sunday claimed that Congress’ seats won’t cross three digits in the upcoming 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Singh was talking to media persons during his visit to the city at Indore Press Club.

The Chhattisgarh chief minister said that the whole country is annoyed with corruption and inflation, so they want to put an end of Congress rule.

Asked on the emergence of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led by Arvind Kejriwal and possible challenge it might pose to BJP’s prospects in Lok Sabha elections, Singh said that AAP has done hard work in Delhi in the last 1.5 years but still the public chose BJP as the single largest party in Delhi.

“BJP is the political power which is able to uproot Congress from the country,” he said adding that people now want NDA to return to power at the Centre. He claimed that both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have raced way ahead of those states which were geographically restructured as two separate states a decade ago.

Despite global recession, both the states maintained excellent growth rate of late. Singh claimed that he carries a long standing association with the Madhya Pradesh and Indore. Every time I start new political inning in Chhattisgarh, I seek blessings from Mahakal in Ujjain.

He is scheduled to seek offers prayers at Ujjain on Monday. On Naxalite menace back home, Singh claimed that thousands of youths have been recruited in CG police and they have been armed with latest weapons.

He, however, called for Integrated Action against naxals from all the states affected by this threat.

On being asked whether the public wants chief ministers who act like a chief executive office like him, Singh candidly mentioned that it’s all about financial management.

The states have limited resources and the CM is expected to act like a CEO for ensuring that additional funds are generated by optimum utilization of resources.

Source: DNA

Sardar Patel Statue to Drive Narendra Modi's Campaign

NEW DELHI: BJP plans to build Narendra Modi's campaign by an all-out mobilization for the Sardar Patel statue of unity in January that will see thousands of boxes fitted with electronic chips being tracked from a central control in Gujarat as they transport pieces of iron and soil to be used in the proposed memorial.

The use of a GIS tracking system will enable organizers to monitor panchayat level political meetings where the boxes with their contents will be "dedicated" to the nationalist causes the Sardar is believed to have espoused as India's first home minister.

Meetings and modest local yatras, BJP managers believe, will help build a saffron mood in favour of Modi in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections with the programme borrowing a leaf from the Ram shila pujan mobilization that the Sangh Parivar undertook for the Ayodhya movement in the late 1980s.

But in contrast to the highly polarizing message of the Ram shila pujan programme involving transport of bricks for the "construction" of a Ram temple, the Sardar Patel mobilization is focusing on a subtler nationalist sub-text that advocates decisive governance.

The uniform chip-fitted boxes are to be provided by the Sardar Patel Rashtriya Ektra Trust headed by Modi and are intended to be taken to as many destinations BJP state units can reach.

The central pitch of the Modi for PM campaign is expected to be around his "no nonsense, business-like" leadership that the party sees is an attractive contrast to a scam-hit Manmohan Singh regime, vulnerable to political attacks despite Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's rearguard action on corruption issues.

The Sardar Patel programme is to be followed by an ambitious voter outreach where BJP's estimated 3 crore members are to be tasked with contacting 10 voters each, setting a target of 30 crore electors. This will add the vote and note for Modi drive to collect small donations.

BJP intends to scan the updated voter lists that will be available in January 2014 and draw up targets for its state and district units to meet by February. The effort will look to collect data on voters like email and mobile contacts so that BJP's views reach individuals ahead of the next national election.

The brainstorming sessions held this week saw a direct involvement of Modi who seemed to have taken charge of the campaign more fully after the recent assembly elections concluded with BJP victories in three states.

Modi urged BJP's media faces to do their homework before appearing on television so that the party can come across as a credible outfit with consistent viewpoints.

The technological backbone of the BJP poll effort is being managed largely by Modi's office in Ahmedabad and Bangalore-based IT guru Rajesh Jain. The programmes being run are analyzing voter data to set campaign targets. BJP said its recent run for unity saw the participation of 50 lakh individuals.

Source: TOI

Why DMK Break with Congress is Good-News for Narendra Modi?

The DMK's decision to dump its Congress alliance in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls is one more piece of evidence that power - or even the prospect of power - is the key to alliances. While this does not mean M Karunanidhi is about to seek an entry into the NDA under Narendra Modi, the smell of defeat that hangs around the Congress party is driving away allies, giving the BJP hope for 2014.

The unquestioned assertion till recently that Modi will find it impossible to get allies is dying a slow death.

The media - barring a few prescient ones like MJ Akbar - has been consistently wrong on the BJP's ability to attract allies, especially under Modi. This writer has always maintained that UPA and NDA are the result of pre- and post-poll power calculations, and not really about ideology. It is silly to believe that ideology alone is going to drive allies away (or bring in) from the BJP. The DMK's rethink tells us why.

We know that Karunanidhi was extremely unhappy with the Congress for not shielding A Raja and, worse, his own daughter Kanimozhi, from going to jail in connection with the 2G scam. But he didn't quit the UPA as long as staying in power - or being close to the centre of power - was a realistic prospect. Now that the Congress has all the looks of a loser, he is willing to abandon it and look elsewhere for love and affection. It may not be the BJP, for Karunanidhi made it clear that the old love ended with Atal Behari Vajpayee, but who knows whether he will shift further depending on results in May 2014.

In fact, the DMK is not the only party shuffling away from the Congress. Others are looking furtively left and right to see how they can cosy up to the BJP before the next election - their only anxiety being calculations on whether they will lose the Muslim vote in pursuit of the additional votes a BJP alliance can fetch.

In Andhra Pradesh, both Chandrababu Naidu and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy are not averse to a BJP tieup, covert or overt. What they are looking for is a fig leaf of secularism. In Karnataka, BS Yeddyurappa is already game, but one can't rule out Deve Gowda's Janata Dal (S) also getting into a wink-and-a-nod alliance - as it did in a recent Lok Sabha bypoll which it lost. In Tamil Nadu, J Jayalalithaa has always been considered a willing alliance partner for Modi, and the smaller parties – PMK, MDMK, etc – are waiting for cues from the bigger two parties to jump onto the bandwagon. They have the luxury of deciding after May 2014.

In Assam, the AGP will probably team up with BJP, and post-poll one can't rule out Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik working out an arrangement for outside support if the Modi-led BJP crosses the 200-mark. A tieup with Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand is a distinct possibility, too.

In Haryana, the BJP is already in an alliance with Kuldeep Bishnoi, and an expansion of the alliance to include INLD cannot be ruled out. In Maharashtra and Punjab, the BJP has its strongest ideological allies in the Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena. It is, in fact, interesting that the Akali Dal’s Naresh Gujral is playing match-maker in the BJP’s search for allies. Gujral, according to The Economic Times, is the middleman talking to Naidu and others who are wary about a direct tieup. The irony is obvious: the Akali Dal is as “communal”, with its Sikh linkages, as the BJP, with its Hindu leanings, but this is how secularism works in India – through liberal doses of hypocrisy.

However, we don’t have to look at the behaviour of political parties for affirming the notion that it is power that unites, and loss of power that separates. There is now ample evidence that Muslims in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan started shifting towards parties that looked like winning rather than sticking to the Congress. In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party harvested its first large chunk of the Muslim vote, and in Rajasthan and MP, the BJP got a good share of Muslim votes. Muslims are getting rid of their fears that if they abandon Congress, they are going to be losers.

Source: FirstPost

Narendra Modi Offers BJP ticket to Sourav Ganguly: Report

Former Indian cricket captain Sourav Ganguly has been offered a ticket to contest the general elections next year by the BJP but is undecided on whether to accept the offer.

It is learnt that the offer has come from the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, who has promised to make the Bengal sports icon the sports minister in the Cabinet if the party comes to power.

"Yes, I've an offer. But I'm still undecided on what to do. I've been busy for last few days... I'll let you know soon," Ganguly was quoted as saying in a leading Bengali daily.

The speculation has been doing rounds after he met Varun Gandhi through a common friend in the capital in mid November.

Varun, the national general secretary of BJP, is also the observer for West Bengal.

In the Trinamool Congress-ruled Bengal with 42 seats, BJP has a solitary presence in Darjeeling.

Ganguly, however, could not be reached for a reaction to the report.

Source:Financial Express

BJP could Get Clean Win in Delhi-Congress is in No-3 Position

The results of the post-poll survey by Lokniti (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Week confirm the broad trends indicated in the other exit poll/post-poll surveys disclosed on 4 December on various channels: the BJP is clearly ahead of the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The Lokniti poll, based on a sample survey of 2,263 voters across 28 Delhi constituencies (out of a total of 70) should be fairly indicative since it was conducted the next day, after the heat and dust of polling day had settled down.

The vote shares indicated by this post-poll survey give the BJP 33 percent (down 3 percent from 2008, but comfortably ahead of the No 2), AAP 27 percent (a spectacular debut), and just 23 percent for the Congress (down 17 percent from 2008, when it was a two-horse race).

Given the usual three percent margin of error, these numbers could lead to several possible outcomes in terms of seat count, given below in a declining order of probability.

1: The likeliest possibility is a clear win, or even a sweep, for the BJP. In a three-way vote split, the party with the largest chunk of the vote often gets a disproportionate number of seats – especially if its votes are concentrated in the right areas. This is what happened in Uttar Pradesh in 2012, when the Samajwadi Party got a clear majority with a vote share of less than 30 percent, and with the BSP just three percentage points behind.

By raising its vote share by just 3.7 percent to 29.15 percent, Akhilesh Yadav saw his seat count rise from 97 in 2007 to a record 224 in 2012. The BSP’s 4.5 percent loss slashed its seats from 206 to just 80.

Is this what is in store in Delhi? We will know on Sunday.

2: The second possibility is that of the BJP emerging as the single largest party. In this case, it will have AAP breathing down its neck – resulting in a hung house. This could happen is the BJP’s vote-share is evenly distributed while AAP’s votes are concentrated in critical pockets. In this eventuality, it is not inconceivable that AAP could form a government with some of the smaller parties like the BSP or independents, who have a 17 percent vote share between them. It is, however, not clear if this will get them a proportionate number of seats. Some of the vote share may just be wasted among also-rans.

3: The third possibility is of the AAP actually emerging as the biggest party. Despite a lower vote share, it may end up with a higher seat share because it may have concentrated its vote-gathering efforts in the right pockets. If this happens – but it is not likely – it will be a tribute to AAP’s ability to micro-manage its voter messaging in the areas most hospitable to its debut.

4: The only outcome that seems unlikely is that of Congress springing a surprise. Not only is the Congress not likely to win, it is even less likely to emerge as the single largest party in the Delhi assembly given the huge disenchantment of the voter with both Sheila Dikshit’s government and the UPA government at the centre. Voter dissatisfaction was high, with 56 percent of those polled saying they were unhappy with the Delhi government and an even larger 63 percent saying they loathed the Congress-led UPA government. If the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system gives the Congress more seats, it will be a travesty.

So what are the broader messages coming from the CNN-IBN post-poll survey, assuming the outcome on Sunday pans out almost like this?

First, it is obvious that both the BJP and AAP are gaining from the Congress party’s double anti-incumbency – both in Delhi and at the centre. The middle class vote is clearly divided in Delhi for the assembly elections, with younger voters clearly opting for Arvind Kejriwal, and the older (and more upper caste) voters preferring the BJP. The split is evident from the top two issues mentioned by voters – price-rise and corruption. The former is the BJP’s top advantage against a faltering Congress, and the latter Kejriwal’s calling card.

Second, the Narendra Modi factor is clearly at work – and has helped the BJP. The survey clearly shows that Modi’s choice, Harsh Vardhan, as CM candidate improved the BJP’s prospects. Thus, even though Arvind Kejriwal was the first choice of CM for 27 percent of those sampled, Harsh Vardhan was close behind at 22 percent – up from just 2 percent in October. Harsh Vardhan was clearly an inspired choice for the BJP. Dikshit was a distant third with 15 percent.

Third, there’s more good news for the BJP from the Delhi vote. A significant percentage of AAP voters also like the idea of having Narendra Modi as PM. While 49 percent of those polled wanted him as PM, 49 percent of AAP voters also liked Modi, not to speak of 20 percent of Congress voters. What this suggests is that if the current mood holds till April-May 2014, the Modi-led BJP should be able to overcome the AAP challenge. The Congress faces a rout, unless Kejriwal pulls off something to dent the BJP vote and make the voting patterns messy.

However, this looks unlikely since voters tend to move towards a winner and not the loser. Modi’s preferential vote is 49 percent, more than Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal and Manmohan Singh put together. Delhi’s voters are in no doubt about whom they want as PM.

Fourth, the electorate clearly is not swayed by freebies and government favours. Sheila Dikshit’s government has already begun implementing the cheap food scheme, and she courted the middle class by regularising many unauthorised colonies before the elections. The Congress is not going to win 2014 by mere pre-election bribery at the taxpayers’ expense. It is too far gone for that.

However, none of the gainers – BJP and AAP – can afford to rest on their laurels. While the Congress has the looks of a loser, both BJP and AAP are attracting the same segments. This is apparent when we see the narrow gap between the two parties in the fight for the middle class vote. While the BJP leads 39 percent to 30 percent among the upper classes, and 30-24 even among the poor, the gap is narrowest in the middle and lower classes – at 33-29 and 32-27 respectively.

AAP and BJP will have to figure out whether their voters this year will stay with them for the general elections, or whether they have to work harder to undercut the other.

The double-incumbency has merely enlarged the non-Congress vote, but both AAP and the BJP have to work hard again to grab the lion’s share. The vote in 2014 is about the national government where the issues are different; the BJP has to play a smarter game than it has done so far in Delhi, where AAP has nearly managed to upstage it.

Source: FirstPost

Exit-Poll Result: Delhi-MP-Rajasthan-Chhattisgarh 2013 Assembly Elections

Source: Business-standard

Assembly Elections: Exit Polls Predict 4-0 Sweep for BJP in Delhi MP Rajasthan Chhattisgarh

NEW DELHI: The BJP appears to be on course to make a total 4-0 sweep of the latest round of elections to the legislative assemblies of the four states of Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, if exit poll results released on Wednesday are to be believed.

These polls, which involve interviews with voters as they emerge from polling booths, show the BJP wresting Rajasthan away from the Congress, holding on to Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and emerging as the single larges party in Delhi.

If confirmed by actual results on Sunday, an emphatic victory of such a scale will give the main opposition party strong momentum going into the 2014 elections and will be a major shot in the arm for its PM candidate Modi, who had campaigned extensively. For the Congress, it could trigger a hard look at its strategy and increase the pressure on it to resort to course corrections. "If the exit polls are showing 4-0 in favour of BJP, it's clearly a victory for Modi," said political analyst Dipankar Gupta. While the Congress was dismissive, the BJP made little effort to hide sounding triumphant. "This is as per our expectations. The party and workers put in effort and the icing on the cake was Modi.

We feel that the large percentage of polling among youth and women especially were due to his emphasis on it and we expect this role to grow as general elections approach," said spokesman Prakash Javadekar.

In Delhi, which was the last of the four states to go to polls and where voting was extended till 7.15 pm on Wednesday amid unprecedentedly high voter turnout, the jury was still out with none of the pollsters committing on just who would form the government.

While all polls gave the highest number of seats to BJP, the debutant Aam Aadmi Party ( AAP) led by Arvind Kejriwal was being credited with winning anywhere between six and 18 seats, an unusual feat for a new political party. One exit poll — the Headlines Today poll conducted by ORG — gave BJP 41 seats in the 70-member assembly while most others gave it 30-40 seats.

But Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, who put up an almost lonely battle at times, dismissed the polls. "Every time it is the same thing, you always underestimate Congress and we are voted in by the people. I will wait till the (December) 8th to comment," said the three-time chief minister. In the 2004 and 2009 general elections, most pollsters failed to see the Congress victory.

While Congress was dismissive, BJP made little effort to hide sounding triumphant. "This is as per our expectations. We always said that both our chief ministers would return, and in Rajasthan and Delhi it will be a homecoming after a gap. The party and workers put in efforts and the icing on the cake was Narendra Modi. We feel that the large percentage of polling among youth and women especially were due to his emphasis on it and we expect this role to grow as general elections approach," said spokesman Prakash Javadekar.

In Chhattisgarh, where the race was considered to be tight one and BJP appeared shaky after the first round of polling in Bastar, all four exit polls showed its Chief Minister Raman Singh forming the government again. The only exit poll which showed him two seats shy of the magic number of 46 in the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly was the India TV-C Voter poll.

Source: Economic Times

Modi’s ‘Lalkar’ Rally: New Stand on Article-370, Hints at New Ally

Jammu: Narendra Modi‘s ‘lalkar‘ rally, his first in the state since being made the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, may prove to be the game changer for his party in the winter capital of Jammu and Kashmir.
The rally must perhaps be the first BJP rally held in the state, where an estimated ninety thousand people crowded inside and outside the stadium to listen to the party’s prime ministerial candidate.
Some like 35-year-old Parveena Chowdry travelled more than three hundred kilometres from a remote village in Kupwara in north Kashmir to listen to Modi.
She said that she had left from home two days ago so that she could make it to the rally in time. She was among over an estimated six thousand people who travelled to Jammu from Kashmir for the rally.
“We came in a bus from Kupwara to listen to Modiji. He will change the discrimination meted out to the Gujjars of Kashmir when he will become the prime minster of the country,” Chowdry said.

The entire Jammu province was shut today thanks to the rally and was the atmosphere inside the stadium was electric. When Modi arrived at the venue and shook hands with a man wearing a skull cap, his audience cheered. But it was the content of the BJP prime ministerial candidate’s speech that may offer some clues for the party’s plans in the state for the upcoming national elections.

Modi and party president Rajnath Singh spoke on topics ranging from about Article 370 of the constitution, corruption, underdevelopment, the incursion into Indian territory by Chinese troops and even herbal medicine. They also took digs at the ruling National Conference and Congress.

However, not one BJP leader who spoke from the dais said anything about the Kashmir-centric Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). It was almost as surprising as the party’s newly softened stance on Article 370 of the constitution.

While the BJP and PDP have been loggerheads with each in state politics, the rally may offer hints of what the party’s strategy may be in the 2014 elections.

Conscious of where he was speaking, Modi preferred to speak about development and progress rather than local politics or even hitting out at separatists, barring a few passing statements.

He attempted to connect with the youth, a large number of whom were present at the rally, by asking why the state didn’t have national institutions of learning like IITs and IIMs, like neighbouring Himachal Pradesh.

Modi also hit out at the state and central government saying that they were not interested in ensuring the progress of the state.

He promised that if voted to power the BJP would follow the policy model set by the Former Prime Minster Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who he said was the first prime minster to travel to Kashmir after the conflict erupted in the state.

The Gujarat Chief Minister chose to personally target his J&K counterpart by alleging that Omar Abdullah‘s sister didn’t enjoy the same rights he did.

The rights that your chief minister has, does his sister Sara Pilot enjoy the same rights? No, because she married outside the state. I am not talking about Hindus or Muslims. I am talking about the people of J&K.”

Development comes when there is integration. Men and women must have same rights. Should there be discrimination again women in J&K? Shouldn’t the injustice stop.” Modi said to his audience, that responded with cheers.

Abdullah as expected did not take Modi’s statements lying down and took to Twitter to counter.

“He very conveniently used me and my sister as examples to illustrate a point that has NO bearing in truth. Either he lies or is ill informed,” Abdullah tweeted.

The excitement surrounding the the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate’s rally was very visible throughout the day and even offers hints to the BJP’s strategy for the upcoming polls. If the party is able to sustain its activists’ enthusiasm and the Modi wave survives in Jammu, it could have an impact on the results of the next assembly and parliament elections in the state.

Source: FirstPost

BJP All Set to Rout Congress in Delhi: Opinion Polls

An opinion poll survey conducted by India Today group in association with ORG, has predicted that BJP would get 40 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly in the December 4 election. The survey predicts a massive defeat for the ruling Congress which would be confined to mere 18 seats, incurring a loss of 25 seats this time. Aam Aadami Party may get 10 seats.

According to the opinion poll, the main Opposition BJP is predicted to get 37 per cent of the vote share whereas, the Congress is likely to get the support of mere 29 per cent electorate. The new entrant Aam Aadami Party is predicted to get 21 per cent vote in December 4 election.

However, another poll survey conducted by ABP News-Dainik Bhaskar-Nielsen predicts that BJP would emerge as the single largest party in the State Assembly.

This survey gives 25 seats to the ruling Congress, while AAP is predicted to get 10 seats.

The most interesting aspect of the ABP News-Dainik Bhaskar-Nielsen survey is the neck and neck contest among BJP, Congress and AAP in 15 to 20 constituencies of Delhi. The survey says that by the time of voting, which is due on December 4, if the BJP gets a two per cent additional swing in these constituencies, it will win 40 seats, getting a clear majority.

On the contrary, if the Congress gets the two per cent edge on these seats, it will still fall short of majority as it will get mere 34 seats.

The survey tells that the main Opposition Party BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate Harsh Vardhan is ahead of all other prominent contenders for the top job.

Thirty four percent people chose to go for Harsh Vardhan, 33 per cent for AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal. Present Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit was backed by just 26 per cent people.

Replying to questions asked during the opinion poll, 56 per cent people said that BJP’s decision to appoint Harsh Vardhan as its Chief Ministerial candidate gives an edge to the main Opposition party over its rivals.

As far as the prominent poll issues are concerned, 74 per cent people consider the inflation as the top election issue in Delhi. Seven per cent people consider sewer, 4 per cent consider water and 5 per cent choose electricity as the main poll issue.

Political analysts say that Narendra Modi factor is greatly working in favour of the BJP in the national capital.

India Today-ORG Opinion Poll
BJP	40
Congress	18
AAP	10
Others	2

ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll
BJP	32
Congress	25
AAP	10
Others	3

Source: NitiCentral.com

The Indian Republic Opinion Poll Rankings-Find which Poll to Trust for Election Season

Every important election in India sees political parties express opinions about opinion polls. Every now and then there is a call to ban them or at the very least regulate them. In a democracy, one of the most treasured virtues is the freedom to express opinions and hence we at The Indian Republic feel that banning them will go against the very spirit of our constitution. We do however believe that it is important for people to know which polls are more accurate. Hence, today we present India’s first ever opinion poll rankings. It is a market determined method of regulation vs. one that may be imposed by the state.

The Indian Republic team has analysed predictions and actual results for 2009 General elections and the major state elections since 2011 for the Opinion Poll Ranking – these states include Punjab, Gujarat, UP, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh and Assam. Eyeing the top spot are four contenders – CVoter, AC Nielsen, CSDS and ORG. Post collation of data from publicly available sources The Indian Republic developed a multi-criterion decision making algorithm to assign a final score to each of them (details below) – While opinion polls claim an error margin of between 3-5% we found several instances where the error margins were over 10%. Thus, the model we have developed ranks the polls relative to each other where the focus is on which poll result is closest to the final results. And the results are as follows:

The winner of the Opinion Poll Ranking is CSDS with a comfortable margin. CVoter comes second while ORG and AC Nielsen are third and fourth. It is also important to note media companies that commonly release the results of these surveys – CSDS polls are released by CNN IBN, CVoter polls are released by Times Now, ORG polls are released by Headlines Today-Aaj Tak, AC Nielsen polls are released by Star (now ABP). It is often said that media agencies biases are reflected in opinion poll results.

This equation becomes even more interesting when ownership of media houses changes. For example after a star performance in 2009 General elections, AC Nielsen polls were lagging until recently – once the ownership transferred from Star to ABP it scored in our model in the recent Karnataka elections.

So what differentiates the results of these polls? – methodology is the most important when it comes to surveys. This includes factors like whether a) the sample is random, representative, stratified random etc. b) what is the sample size c) was the survey conducted over the phone or in a face-to-face interaction d) when were the polls conducted etc. CSDS holds the reputation of having the right mix wherein the sample is stratified random which ensures that the sample is both representative and random, it has relatively large sample sizes and is done in a face-to-face interview. While CVoter also follows some of the best industry practices, its surveys are often based on telephonic interviews that are spread over a large period of time.

The scoring matrix gives 0.5 pts if the poll estimate is closest to the party with the highest number of seats, 0.33 if it is closest to the party with the second highest number of seats and 0.167 if it is closest to the party/others with the third highest number seats. These weights have been determined by a multi-criteria decision making model using pair wise ranking of alternatives. (Other agencies which wish to be ranked using our algorithm can contact us and we will include them in future rankings)

Score Break-up:

Before having a look at what the polls are predicting for upcoming elections let us have a look at the predictions and the actual results over the past several elections for each of the polls.

So what do these surveys predict for the upcoming 2013 state-elections of Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh:

Source: TheIndianRepublic.com

BJP's PM Candidate Modi Shortlisted by Time for 'Person of the Year’

New Delhi: BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is among Time magazine's shortlisted candidates for its 'Person of the Year' title and has emerged as an early favourite among the readers in an online poll.

Time has shortlisted 42 global leaders, entrepreneurs and celebrities for its 'Person of the Year 2013' and will announce the winner next month.

Other candidates in fray are Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, US President Barack Obama, Pakistani teenage education activist Malala Yousafzai, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and even the new heir to the British throne Prince George.

On Modi, Time said "the controversial Hindu nationalist and Chief Minister of the Indian state of Gujarat is the most likely candidate to unseat India’s ruling Congress party in the world’s largest democracy."

Modi is the only Indian in the shortlist.

While Time's editors will choose the winner, it has asked readers to cast their votes for the person they think "most influenced the news this year for better or worse".

So far Modi has got over 2650 votes and with about 25 percent, is leading the online readers' poll. Modi is way ahead with Snowden, who garnered the second highest number of votes at about 7 percent as on November 20.

Obama, who has twice been named 'Person of the Year', is in the shortlist with the US magazine saying the President's "second term started with a slew of self-inflicted wounds and unfulfilled promise(s), from an IRS scandal and stalled immigration reform to the bungled Obamacare launch". Syrian President Bashar Assad is also among the contenders.

Among the other candidates are New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Twitter CEO Dick Costolo, J P Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Pope Francis, Oscar winner Angelina Jolie.

International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde, Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer, Germany's re-elected Chancellor Angela Merkel, Russian President Vladimir Putin are other contenders.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Chinese President Xi Jinping are also among those shortlisted.

Chechen brothers Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the suspects in the Boston Marathon terror bombings, are in the shortlist too.

Source: ZeeNews

Women's Safety Should be THE Issue of 2014 Polls in India

[We say elections nowadays are fought without issues. Is it true? Six months before the next Lok Sabha polls which many are predicting to be a sort of an unprecedented battle, it is not that India has little or no issue to fight over but what is disappointing is that it is fighting over issues that are not primary.]

Who should be the PM is a secondary issue?

There is a huge enthusiasm across the nation on who should become the next prime minister and how a new government should teach the Pakistanis or the Chinese for violating the borders. The challenger is repeating the corruption that those in power has allegedly indulged in over the ages while the defender is re-emphasising the need of the right to eat of the poor.

Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi should speak on women's safety.

The two main faces of the competing parties, the Congress and the BJP, are heard of saying sharp but repetitive words, aimed at each other. Strangely, none is heard of speaking much about the most burning issue in the country at the moment and that is: safety of women.

Yes, we all know that the coal files shouldn't have been stolen, the poor should be fully fed, the farmer shouldn't keep staring at the flying airplane, terrorism should be wiped out, development should take place, the youth should be empowered... but shouldn't be the womenfolk of this country be the safe before anything else falls in place? Why neither Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi or for the matter any other political leader of this country is putting a firm emphasis on this issue? Like the Aam Aadmi Party which has been formed just to protest corruption, why isn't there still a political party which will only fight for women's safety?

Women's safety is a major challenge in a changing India, but how many are thinking of it?

Issues like communalism, secularism or Mandir-Mandal politics is outdated now. As a modern socio-economy which is yet to take a complete shape, India today is facing threats and problems and the consequence of which is felt the most by the women. Yet, no politician is seen speaking about the issue spontaneously and vowing to improve the situation.

Women's safety isn't just a matter to corner the govt, it requires consistent backing

Women are being sexually assaulted at the workplace, on the streets, at home and we are just depending on law to take care of the problem. why isn't the leadership, across the political spectrum, taking care of this irrespective of the political colour? We heard Modi and Arvind Kejriwal speaking on the issue a couple of times but that seemed to be more an effort to corner the ruling Congress in Delhi and not a uniform stand to deal with the menace across the nation.

It doesn't really matter who becomes the prime minister, Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi, if the country continues to fail to save its women's modesty after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It would be a far more hopeful scenario if a Modi and Rahul join hand to fight the terrorism against women across the society. But will that happen ever?

Source: OneIndia

CPI(M) to Contest Mandi-Shimla Seats in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

Shimla: Taking a lead from other major parties the Communist Party of India-Marxist yesterday announced that it would fight two out of four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh for the 2014 parliament elections.

The State Secretariat which met in Mandi disclosed that the party has decided to field Khushal Bhardwaj, the Vice President of Himachal Kisan Sabha and earlier a very prominent student leader of Himachal Pradesh University from the Mandi parliamentary seat and Jagat Ram, President of State CITU from the Shimla parliamentary constituency.

The party had earlier fought Vidhan Sabha elections from majority assembly segments from these two constituencies. There is a considerable improvement in the strength of cadres and growth in the party in these constituencies, said Dr Onkar Shad, senior party leader.

The CPI-M is leaving the other two seats of Kangra and Hamirpur to the CPI or other Lok Morcha parties, he said.

The left party while claiming to become an alternative to the Congress and BJP in the hill State has termed the 10 months period of the incumbent Congress government as dismal and absolutely in the footsteps of its previous predecessor which was following and implementing the ruinous neo-liberal path of development in the State.

The Congress like the BJP is dismantling the health sector in a planned manner and outsourcing the majority services to the private companies in the bulk of State run hospitals.

The entire laboratory tests so far conducted in these hospitals are now being given to the Ranbaxy, a private company. The State would loose a revenue of around Rs 10 crore by outsourcing the hospital tests to the private players, said the CPI-M. This major decision has not been taken in the cabinet and was solely decided by the health department, alleged the party.

It has also questioned the government’s role in destroying the once efficient public distribution system in the State. There is acute shortage of ration in all government depots and the public is reeling under extreme price rise. The incumbent government is contemplating to bring some foreign company in the purchase and distribution of ration in the State.

The party also strongly raised the issue of unnecessary intervention by the Virbhadra government in the working and functioning of trade unions and workmen associations.

Under the pressure from big corporate groups, the government is dithering from implementing any grants and required wages to the working class.

It is not even allowing the unions to get registered in companies like “Catch Spices” and “Jaypee Cements”, alleged the CPI-M while promising to raise the peoples’ issues during the run up for the coming elections.

Source: Hill Post

Investors Inclined Towards a BJP Win in 2014 Election: CLSA

[The brokerage listed a wave in favour of Narendra Modi as one of the probable reasons for BJP winning 202 seats in the 2014 Elections]

New Delhi: Opinion polls may be unreliable, but the markets favour the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to win next year’s general elections, Hong Kong-based securities house CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said on Monday.

“It is clear that the market favours one outcome over another. It is their right to do that,” Christopher Wood, equity strategist at CLSA, told reporters at the CLSA India Forum in New Delhi.

The brokerage, in a presentation, also projected the state-wise performance of BJP and the probable reasons for it securing 202 seats in the 2014 election: a wave in favour of the party’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi; the appeal of Modi to urban voters; anti-incumbency; polarization; and the strong performance of BJP state governments.

No such scenario was envisaged for the Congress.

CLSA’s view is that India’s “six-month story” is uncertain, but the securities house is optimistic about the country’s “two-year story”.

Among the negatives, CLSA listed fiscal pressure, a weak currency, slowing growth in consumption, political uncertainty and a possible downside to 2014-15 corporate earnings. Among the positives it listed an “uptick” in the investment cycle in 12-18 months, the direct benefits transfer scheme that it called a “bold new reform”, the superior performance of the Indian IT sector, and the fact that banks are becoming aggressive about recovering their dues.

But the securities house’s most controversial analysis is likely to be what it called its “BJP 2014 Blue Sky” (projection). CLSA India Ltd’s executive director Mahesh Nandurkar explained the rationale behind providing such a projection and said it was because of “a lot of investor queries”.

“I haven’t seen this kind of interest in Indian politics from global investors,” he said.

The Congress has been critical of such analyses in the backdrop of a 7 November report by financial services firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc. which stated that an upgrade in India’s investment prospects was possible if a coalition led by BJP comes to power, and may fuel investment demand, particularly in infrastructure.

In response to the Congress party’s reaction, Wood said, “That happens all over the world. We have no issue with that.” CLSA’s presentation dovetails with assembly elections in four states—Delhi, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh—that are seen as a direct contest between the Congress and BJP.

“I think banks like Goldman Sachs should stay focused only on doing what they claim to specialize in,” trade minister Anand Sharma was cited as saying in The Economic Times on 8 November.

“Goldman’s latest report on Indian economy and its eagerness to push the case of a particular political leader and his party exposes two things—Goldman is parading its ignorance about the basic facts of Indian economy; and it also exposes its eagerness to mess around with India’s domestic politics. It only makes Goldman’s credibility and motives highly suspect,” he said.

The reference to a particular political leader was to Modi, the Gujarat chief minister who is spearheading the BJP campaign in the state elections after being anointed as the party’s prime ministerial candidate in the next general elections.

“Rather than appreciating the message, they are going after the messenger,” Rajeev Malik, senior economist at CLSA Singapore Pte. Ltd.

Some opinion polls have projected BJP under Modi as the front runner in next year’s general election, but Wood cited a history of such polls going wrong in predicting electoral results.

“Opinion polls represent an urban electorate rather than a rural one. From the sentiment stand point, opinion polls are important, but from the fundamental standpoint it is the investment cycle (that is important to the markets),” he said.

India has witnessed a debate on opinion polls, with the Election Commission having written to the ministry of law and justice for a ban on the publication of such surveys from the date of notification of elections.

India’s economic growth slowed to 5% in the year ended 31 March, the slowest pace in 10 years, and is forecast by some economists and international agencies to slow further in the current fiscal year. Economists have blamed the stalling of economic reforms during much of the UPA government’s second term in office for the slower pace of growth. And many investors have decided they are better off waiting to see who comes to power in next year’s general election rather than taking an investment decision now.

“The tone and agenda will be set up by the next government,” Malik said. “The political will is not there. It is an inefficiently run economy and any kind of incremental improvement will have a constructive role.”

Indeed, nothing is happening because corruption had become the standard way of getting things done, explained Wood. And everything has come to a standstill in the absence of any other way of getting things done. The ruling UPA government has been roiled by several corruption scandals related to irregularities in the allotment of spectrum, coal mines, and organizing the Commonwealth Games.

Source: LiveMint.com

Narendra Modi the Target-Pak ISI Turns to Dawood Ibrahim for Help

Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has turned to its old confidant Dawood Ibrahim seeking his aid to attack the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, if the central intelligence agencies are to be believed. This has been revealed in a secret note of the intelligence agencies on Modi's threat perception.

The Gujarat chief minister is facing threats from various terror outfits also.

The fresh intelligence gathered by central intelligence agencies reveals that the ISI is taking the underworld don's assistance to target Modi. The intelligence note prepared on the threat to Modi has also mentioned about the ISI-Dawood nexus.

"As per an input, Dawood Ibrahim during a meeting with senior ISI functionaries was tasked to restart activities in India and also target Shri Narendra Modi," the note says.

Sources say the note was prepared after the attack on Modi's rally in Patna on October 27. As many as eight people were killed in the eight explosions occurred in Patna during Modi rally. It is suspected that terror outfit Indian Mujahideen was responsible for the attack.

The intelligence note also reveals that Modi faces a risk not just within India but also from other countries. Other than Pakistan's ISI, terror operatives in Saudi Arabia are also targeting Modi.

"Islamic fundamentalists based in Saudi Arabia are planning attack Modi," the note says.

According to the inputs gathered by intelligence agencies, a terror operative - Shahid alias Bilal - has informed an unidentified associate in Saudi Arabia that a suicide attack would be a better option as against a remotecontrolled Improvised Explosive Device (IED) to attack Modi, says the note.

Another revelation made by in the note is about the possibility of some Indian security officials turning rouge and helping terror groups to attack Modi. The note states that Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT) operatives have recruited some security officials to allow free access to them.

According to intelligence inputs that have been put together by central intelligence agencies, banned outfit Student Islamic Students of India (SIMI) is collaborating with other terror outfits and seeking their help to attack Modi. "SIMI members have been networking with LeT, Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HUJI) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)," the note says.

According to the note, SIMI activists who were arrested recently reveal that the outfit is organising training camps and a suicide wing called Shaheen Force is being organised to target senior political leaders, including Modi who tops the hit list. The note also mentions that Modi faces a threat from Maoists. The intelligence note also mentions the various modus operandi that the terror outfits would resort to.

Use of launchers to target Modi's convoy and ramming an explosives-laden vehicle into his convoy is one of the many options that have been listed. Suicide attacks are another method that terror outfits could use.

Source: IndiaToday

Why BJP is Going to Win 25+ Lok Sabha Seats of Bihar in 2014 Polls?

There are lots of visible and genuine reasons of why in 2014 Lok Sabha Polls, BJP is going to win over 25 seats out of 40 in Bihar:

1. The most prominent factor of winning BJP with record breaking seats of Bihar in 2014 elections is that increasing Narendra Modi acceptance by Bihar people in every section of society very rapidly.

2. There is very mere chances of contesting 2014 general elections by Congress & RJD combined after ordinance chapter raised by Rahul Gandhi to its own party which was favouring Lalu Yadav definitely.

3. There is also very less chances of contesting 2014 Polls by JD(U) with Congress as Narendra Modi already raised JP-and-BJP issue in Hunkar Rally of Patna. Nitish Kumar is trying to play safe in this case as there is a sure chances to swing voters because Bihar is known for its Vote-against-Congress pattern after emergency deployed by Congress & JP-Movement.

4. So, it is clear that there is no chance of pre-poll alliance for 2014 Lok Sabha elections between Congress-RJD or Congress-JD(U). Minority votes will definitely be distributed in Congress-RJD-JD(U). BJP will surely be the gaining party in this case.

5. Recent Bodh-Gaya & Patna like bomb-blasts in last 6-7 months finally decreased popularity of Nitish Kumar in Bihar voters. Also Bihar people are not happy by breaking alliance with BJP by JD(U) without any feasible reasoning.

6. There is a clear national-level wave against Congess-Party due to uncontrolled inflation-unemployment-insecurity (i.e. Mahngai-Berojgari-Ashuraksha) across nation. People want to see a new Government in Center.

Regional-Parties who could do probable alliance with Congress-led-UPA after 2014 polls are also going to lose their vote share nationally.

7. There is a leadership crises in Congress & so called 3rd-front. Central Government has failed on leadership & governance issue. Quick and effective decision making is a big challange for Congress-led-UPA Government.

That is why Narendra Modi finds edge over other national leaders. Good governance record of last 12 years in Gujarat without any communal riots makes Modi far ahead in PM race with other PM prospects.

I hope you like above analysis. Thanks to visitors of this blog and sharing their valuable commnets & views on regular basis.

Source: Blogger-Analysis

Rahul Gandhi a Novice, No Match for Modi: Badal

The oldest serving chief minister in the country, Parkash Singh Badal of Punjab feels that Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi is a "novice" and "no match" to the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

"Rahul Gandhi is a novice in public life and is hardly any match to the NDA's prime ministerial candidate and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi," Badal, who is the patron of the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal, told the media persons in Shahkot town near here on Wednesday.

The Akali Dal is an ally of the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The Punjab chief minister said the country's prime minister should be a "learned personality with varied administrative and public experience". He said Gandhi lacked both.

"It is not possible for such a person to manage the huge responsibility of serving the nation on the top-most post," Badal said.

"On the other hand, Modi has proved his mettle time and again as an able administrator by driving the state of Gujarat on the path of progress," said Badal, who turns 86 next month.

Addressing a public rally in Shahkot, 175 km from here, Badal said neither Congress president Sonia Gandhi nor her son Rahul Gandhi have any sympathy for the common man.

He said India was facing external and internal crises because both these leaders were not even aware about the basic topography of the nation.

"The ignorance of the top leadership of the Congress is proving to be a bane for the entire nation as the faulty policies of the UPA have added to the woes of the common man," Badal said.

Source: IndiaToday.intoday.in

Congress MP Sanjay Singh Shares Dais with BJP Leaders in Rahul Gandhi's Backyard Amethi

Adding fuel to rumours about his growing proximity to the BJP, Congress MP Sanjay Singh on Tuesday shared dais with several leaders of the saffron outfit during his birthday function here, but preferred to play his cards close to his chest.

Asked whether he will join BJP and contest from Amethi Lok Sabha constituency, represented by Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, on its ticket, Singh did not scotch rumours in this regard merely saying the list of candidates would clear the matter.

"I have not quit politics. Everything will be clear once the list of candidates for the Lok Sabha polls are released by political parties," the Congress MP from Sultanpur said.

"Amethi has taught lessons to outsiders from time to time. In Amethi, there are people who does not even belong to Uttar Pradesh. I will take a decision in keeping with whatever is required for Amethi and its people," he said.

"Amethi, Rae Bareli and Sultanpur have shown strength by rejecting outsiders from time to time," he told reporters.

Congress chief Sonia Gandhi represents the Rae Bareli constituency in the Lok Sabha.

Besides local BJP leaders, former BJP MLA Tejbhan Singh shared the platform with Singh during the function at Ram Nagar.

The Congress MP also mentioned the former BJP MLA's name a number of times during his brief speech.

Asked about the presence of BJP leaders at the function, Singh quipped "it is a non-political platform."

Source: DNA

Modi to Drop UP and Fight 2014 Lok Sabha Polls only from Gujarat

Contrary to initial widely reported speculation, Narendra Modi is not likely to contest from Uttar Pradesh.

His proactive campaigning in the state, to which he has made three outings in less than a month (with another scheduled visit to Agra on 21 November) have only fueled rumours that he may stand as a candidate from the state to further boost the BJP’s poll prospects. As a development oriented leader from a backward community with strong Hindutva credentials, Modi would have come to UP as a fiery Mandal, Kamandal and Vikas combo – a hugely attractive electoral proposition in the state.

However BJP sources have told Firstpost that Modi has informed party president Rajnath Singh that he has no desire to contest from UP, preferring instead to head the reorganisation of the party in the state and help with the fine tuning of poll strategy there. He will therefore, most likely contest polls from his home state, Gujarat. He has not decided however which of the 26 seats of the state would be a good constituency for him.

According to the party sources, Modi had told Rajnath Singh that it would not be a wise idea for him (as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate) and Singh (as BJP president) to contest from the same state. Both the leaders are firmly rooted in their respective home states and it is important for the BJP to show diversity in their leadership.

Sources said Modi also does not want to contest from two constituencies, one in Gujarat and the other in Uttar Pradesh.

Even if he were to win both seats, there are several historical examples showing how leaders who won from two constituencies had to face the wrath of people of the constituency they later chose to vacate. The most recent example is that of Akhilesh Yadav who won from two constituencies in the last parliamentary elections. When he vacated Ferozabad and fielded his wife Dimple there instead, she lost to Raj Babbar, the actor turned politician who had revolted from the Samajwadi Party and joined Congress prior to the elections. In Modi’s case the backlash situation may not just be constituency-centric but also state-centric. Something that is completely undesirable for the leader and the party.

The issue is also linked with the Gujarati pride that Modi invokes so often.

He is working to don Sardar Patel’s mantle and a decision to move out of Gujarat to contest elections would hurt that pride and create some popular backlash against him and the BJP. Before the new one word chant of “Modi, Modi, Modi…” became popular, the most popular slogan for party workers had been Dekho Dekho Kaun Aya Gujarat Ka Sher Aya. Modi’s Prime Ministerial claims have been built on governance in Gujarat, and in his recent Bahraich rally he spoke of Gir lions and how lions are known for roars, with barely disguised pride.

Moreover, the leaders who have moved out of their home states to find more convenient electoral abodes in some other states have mostly done so, not because they loved the other state so much but because they couldn’t find a suitable and perpetually safe constituency in their home state. This is not the case with Modi.

But Rhetoric apart, it could be Rajnath Singh who captures Lucknow to lead Modi’s onward march from Gujarat to Delhi.

The BJP leader is under pressure from his sympathisers and party workers to shift from his Ghaziabad parliamentary constituency to either Noida or Lucknow. Both are urban constituencies and have a BJP tilt. Lucknow in particular, is considered quite prestigious for BJP. It was Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s constituency and is currently held by BJP’s Lalji Tandon.

In his rallies in UP, Modi is evoking the sub-nationalism of people of the state and asking why the state has remained backward despite the fact that it has given eight Prime Ministers to the country.

He candidly proclaimed that there would be no stopping him if UP alone decides to make a strong and stable government at the centre. In its previous regimes, the NDA could catapult to power only because, UP gave 55 plus seats to BJP in 1996 and 1998. He does seem to believe in the old saying that the road to Delhi leads from Lucknow. (Vajpayee indeed spelled Lucknow as “Luck Now” at the last BJP convention he attended there).

Source: FirstPost

Big Gains likely for BJP-NDA in Lok Sabha Polls; Steep Drop for UPA and Congress

The wave in favour of the BJP in the coming Assembly Elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is clear.

The question is: what impact will this vote shift towards the BJP have on the General Elections next year?

To find out, the estimates made by CNN-IBN, The Week and CSDS Pre-Poll survey in these three states and in Delhi - where a hung Assembly is likely - for the Assembly Elections were projected across the Parliamentary constituencies in these states. And the outcome shows that the BJP's star is very much in the ascendance.

Of the 72 Parliamentary constituencies in these four states, the BJP is likely to bag as many as 57 seats. That's 27 seats more than it won in the 2009 elections, and 15 more than it was projected to win in July 2013, when the same opinion poll was conducted the previous time.

As for the Congress, its tally is projected to drop by 28 seats, from 40 in 2009 to just 12. This is 15 seats less than the 27 predicted by the survey in July this year. While this makes the picture very clear in these four states, what impact will it have on the overall tally of the UPA and the NDA in next year's general elections? Since the opinion polls do not cover the remaining 471 of India's 543 Parliamentary constituencies, it isn't really possible to make a prediction.

What if the positions in the other states did not change substantially? This is a theoretical supposition, but it still throws up some significant findings. What it shows is that the NDA's tally could grow from 159 in 2009 to between 187 and 195 in the coming elections. That's up from the level of 172-180 projected in July this year.

Correspondingly, the UPA could drop from 262 in 2009 to between 134 and 142 in next year's elections, signifying a much sharper drop. Some of this loss is likely to accrue to the BJP, but the rest of it is all set to go to the other parties, whose collective position could rise from just 122 in 2009 to somewhere between 208 and 216 in next year's elections, which is about the same level projected in July.

At the party level, this will translate into a jump for the BJP from 116 seats in 2009 to between 171 and 179 seats in 2013, up from the 156-164 range projected in July 2013. As for the Congress, its tally may drop sharply from 206 to somewhere between 116 and 124, down even further from the 131-139 range projected in July.

Of course, this isn't a prediction but an exercise. The actual voting in the other states of India will be impacted by many factors.

The six key questions from the other states on which the fate of the next elections hinges:

1. Will Narendra Modi and the BJP be able to sustain their momentum in the key battleground of Uttar Pradesh against Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati?
2. Will the Congress go in for a pre-poll alliance in Bihar with either Nitish Kumar or Lalu Yadav?
3. Will the Telangana decision alter the equations in Andhra Pradesh?
4. Will fresh alliances emerge in Tamil Nadu?
5. Will Raj Thackeray be a potential spoiler for the big players in Maharashtra?
6. The battle has barely begun.
Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan (72 Lok Sabha Seats):

	2009	July 2013 projection	Oct 2013 projection
Congress	40	27	12
BJP	30	42	57

All India picture (543 Lok Sabha Seats):

	2009	July 2013 projection	Oct 2013 projection
UPA	262	149-157	134-142
NDA	159	172-180	187-195
OTH	122	208-216	208-216

All India picture (543 Lok Sabha Seats):

	2009	July 2013 projection	Oct 2013 projection
Congress	206	131-139	116-124
BJP	116	156-164	171-179

Source: IBNLive

2014: 'Feku' & 'Pappu' have Brought 'Hate' to the Hustings

In contrast to the 2008 US presidential election campaign where Barack Obama swept the voters off their feet with his pitch for "hope" and "change", the ruling sentiment at the hustings as India gears up for the 2014 General Election remains "hate".

Source: IndiaToday

Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi: Rallies With Different Strokes

[Blogger's Comment: Modi is far ahead of Rahul in all aspects. A special thanks to Bihar-Janata for Modi's respect and not to be aggresive or violent inspite of Patna serial BOMB-Blast, a unsuccessful try to interrupt Hunkar-Rally]

The contrast is stark. The two politicians spearheading the NDA and UPA campaigns 0differ in every which way. Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi are two very opposite personalities. And the rallies they address bring out that fact in more ways than one.

In a matter of 30 days, there has been a string of rallies held by Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. The differences between the rallies stand out. If one man’s venue is flooded with people, the other can accommodate only a few thousands.

On September 29, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi held a massive rally at the Japanese Park in West Delhi. On Sunday, even as Modi was holding forth at Gandhi Maidan in Patna with his “hunkar rally”, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi addressed his first election rally for the forthcoming Delhi assembly elections.

At Narendra Modi’s rally, the composition of crowd included rickshaw pullers to IT professionals carrying smartphones and other hi-tech gadgets. At Rahul’s rally, which was held in Mangolpuri, an area populated with people from the low income group, there were hardly any smartphone users, forget other high tech gadgets.

Even crowd response at both the rallies were completely opposite to each other.

During Modi’s rally, the crowd did not let any other leader speak. At Rahul’s rally, the crowd started moving out of the ground as soon as he started his speech, not waiting for him to deliver his punchline.

Modi spoke for around one hour. And he went on attack mode from the word go. He slammed the UPA, the Delhi government and trained guns on not only the prime minister but also allies of the Union government.

On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi spoke for 20 minutes, settled with lauding the Sheila Dikshit government, and the flagship programmes of the UPA government. It could be argued that Rahul was making a pitch for the Delhi elections, not for the general elections, which is still months away. But Rahul’s rallies in general, whether held in Udaipur or elsewhere, have been dwarfed by those addressed by Modi.

In terms of the number of people attending too, both their rallies have seen a different count.

While Modi’s rallies were truly “mega”, seeing upwards of two lakhs in attendance, only around 10,000 came to listen to Rahul speak on Sunday But fact is both the parties chose their venues “strategically”.

To show its strength, the BJP organises rallies at venues which have the capacity to accommodate huge numbers. Whereas, the Congress picks up venues such as the park in Mangolpuri, which could accommodate only around 20,000.

Then again, Modi’s Japanese Park’s rally saw people turned “spontaneously”. Even the Delhi Metro recorded an increase in ridership at the nearest metro station to the venue. At the Congress rally in Mangolpuri, the majority of crowd was from nearby localities.

Vijender Gupta, convener of Modi’s rally organising committee, said the Congress was trying to protect its vice-president from humiliation.

Source: DNA

BJP's Hunkar Rally in Patna-Bihar: It will be Modi Challenging Nitish

The real battlefield for Narendra Modi in 2014 will, in many ways, be Bihar and not Uttar Pradesh.

After becoming the Bharatiya Janata Party’s prime ministerial face, the Gujarat chief minister’s first political foray into Bihar for the Hunkar (Roar) Rally on October 27 will be a far critical show than any he has encountered so far. This will be the first time Modi will be a entering the state as a rival to Bihar CM Nitish Kumar.

The reason: A higher seat tally from Bihar, which has 40 Lok Sabha seats, is critical for the BJP, given that a significant rise in its share of the 80 seats in UP will be difficult against Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party.

Both Modi and Kumar are prime ministerial candidates – the latter in perception so far should a Third Front comes alive. And that may have triggered the feud between Modi’s BJP and Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) after 17 years of alliance.

As allies, the two parties had secured 206 seats in a house of 243 in the 2010 assembly polls, with the BJP accounting for 91. While the JD-U attributes the BJP’s success to a ‘Nitish wave’, the BJP claims its upper caste vote bank helped Nitish ride the wave.

Target Nitish:

For the BJP, the challenge will be to bring down Nitish’s stock in Bihar and, nationally, in the 2014 general elections to prove his reign was due to saffron support alone, said PK Sinha, a leader of Samata Party. Simultaneously, the saffron party will look to bag many more Lok Sabha seats than the 12 it managed from Bihar in 2009, Sinha said.

And if the JD-U’s score goes below its 2009 tally of 20, it will effectively end Nitish’s chances of being offered the leadership of a Third Front.

Nitish knows that. He has taken a political risk by breaking up with the BJP — a decision that drew sharp criticism and created quite a perceptible divide among the JD-U rank and file.

Watch Live: BJP's Hunkar Rally of Patna-Bihar Date: 27-October | Timing: 2:00 PM Onwards

But one factor that both the parties conveniently chose to forget is that they grew in alliance and thrived on Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad’s tactical blunder — not accommodating the Congress in a tie-up in 2009, said Lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan. Paswan was an ally of Lalu and is lately exploring tie-up with the Congress.

While Modi’s campaign is tied to ensuring more seats in Bihar, the BJP cannot afford to ignore the RJD, which, at this point in time, is projected to win as many Lok Sabha seats as the BJP from the state in 2014.

If the BJP ends up equalling Lalu’s tally in 2014, it will lose the moral position of being better than the RJD. A poor showing will also cost the JD-U its high ground.

Alliance Crucial:

In such a scenario, the JD-U and the BJP cannot claim that Bihar had rejected Lalu and brought them, as National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies, to power in the state, said Ram Kripal Yadav, a senior leader of Lalu’s RJD.

But for the BJP to have a big success in Bihar, the Congress would have to refuse an alliance with the JD-U and the RJD.

Should the Congress tie up with any of these groupings, the largely upper caste and middle class-supported BJP could see a fall in support and crystallisation of Muslim support against it — not an ideal situation for a sweep.

With the Bihar Congress unit split vertically over the question of whether to ally with the JD-U or the RJD, the ace seems to be up Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi’s sleeve. Gandhi is believed to have a soft corner for the JD-U.

On the other hand, if Bihar sees a four-cornered contest in the Lok Sabha polls — with the BJP, JD-U, RJD along with LJP, and the Congress fighting alone, Modi could virtually sweep Bihar.

Source: Hindustan Times

Can vote for Narendra Modi if He Changes: Shia Leader Kalbe Sadiq

Gujarat CM's policies should show he's concerned about Muslim welfare, says Shia leader Kalbe Sadiq.

BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is no more a political untouchable for Muslims who could vote for him if he changes himself and does not repeat past mistakes. Prominent Muslim cleric and vice-president of the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) Maulana Kalbe Sadiq, who commands a mass following in the minority community, surprised many when he said this on Friday.

Political watchers see the cleric’s statement in the context of Rahul Gandhi’s speech in Indore where he said Pakistan’s ISI was in touch with some Muslim youngsters in riot-hit Muzzaffarnagar. It is understood that many Muslim leaders are upset with the way Rahul has linked Muslims to terrorism. The cleric’s statement is also being considered a major boost for the BJP’s PM-in-waiting who has been facing constant flak over the 2002 Gujarat riots in which many Muslims were killed.

Sadiq said he was not happy with Modi’s past “but no one is a political untouchable”. He said Islam doesn’t endorse such ideas and that it allows for pardon and mercy even if a criminal truly and honestly expresses regret and promises to reform himself. “I can also vote for Modi if he changes himself,” he asserted.

Praising Modi’s development model in Gujarat, Sadiq said: “Our first priority is India’s growth on all fronts. Muslims would vote for India’s development and won’t mind voting even for Modi if he changes himself.”

“People should be given a chance to correct their mistakes. Modi should make changes in his policies and programmes to convey that he is concerned about the welfare of Muslims. If he does that, Muslims could consider voting for him.

“There are differences in words and deeds of Modi and people have lost faith in him after Gujarat riots,” Sadiq said. “What happened in Gujarat (in 2002) was very heartbreaking,” he added.

Asked if the Gujarat chief minister should ‘apologise’ for the riots, Sadiq said rather than tendering an apology, he should prove through his actions that he has changed.

On Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s remarks about ISI being in touch with Muzaffarnagar riot victims, the Maulana said, “This must be investigated. If somebody has a relative there (in Pakistan) and they speak to him, then we can’t say, but there must be no compromise on terrorism.”

Political pundits here see in his comments a warning for Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, for whom Muslims are the party’s crucial votebank. He has been facing criticism over his son and UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s handling of last month’s communal clashes in Muzaffarnagar besides the frequent riots taking place in UP.

Source: DNA

Narendra Modi Seeks Voters' Ideas for BJP's 2014 Manifesto

The BJP now wants voters' suggestions for preparing the party's manifesto for the 2014 general elections.

The appeal came on a tweet from the party's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, with a link to the website recording people's views.

"Your voice, your manifesto! Urging you to share ideas for 2014 BJP manifesto. Let us work together for a better India!"

The link to manifesto website is http://www.bjpelectionmanifesto.com/#.

The message on website said the party's manifesto should reflect aspirations of the masse, especially the youth. It should also redefine the way the country was being governed currently.

"Narendra Modi has called for the transformation of representative democracy into participatory democracy. As the first step towards your participation, we seek your suggestions and ideas to make our manifesto more meaningful and purposeful."

For recoding their suggestions, visitors will have to click on the dropbox at the top of the screen, fill in details, select a category and post their views.

The party said it "will consider each suggestion with care".

Veteran BJP leader Murali Manohar Joshi is heading the manifesto committee.

The website also has BJP manifestoes from the 1998, 2004 and 2009 general elections.

Source: IndiaToday

Poll Surveys are 'Entertainment Programmes': Nitish Kumar

With poll surveys indicating increase in seats for the BJP-led NDA under its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in 2014 polls, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar today dismissed such surveys based on small samples and said those were nothing more than "entertainment programmes".

"These surveys based on sample size of only 4000 and without considering the fact that India does not have a bipolar political set up but a multi-party ethos are not true... They are nothing more than entertainment programmes," Kumar told reporters.

"Everybody knows these are PR exercise to falsely claim that nation's mood is in their favour," he said.

"When results of the elections will come, the people going euphoric over such surveys will fall flat," he said in an apparent dig at his estranged NDA partner BJP.

"All TV channels showing survey reports had predicted hung Assembly in Bihar in both 2005 and 2010 state elections, but they all proved wrong when the ballot boxes were opened," he said.

Picking holes in the recent survey reports, Kumar said while he was credited for bringing development in Bihar, it was shown that JD(U) would get not more than 9 seats out of a total 40 seats in Bihar.

"Do they mean that discredited people will win all the seats in the state?" he asked.

"Those basking in the glory of such surveys will have no place to hide their faces when the poll results will be declared," he said.

Source: DNA

Elections 2014: 10000 NRIs to be on Modi Duty; Expats to Cheer for BJP’s PM Candidate

NEW DELHI: Holidaying NRIs are a wintertime fixture in India. This winter will be somewhat different. A large number of visiting NRIs will be on what they consider serious business - volunteering for Narendra Modi's election campaign.

ET has learnt, from talking to NRI organisations, that close to 10,000 Indians living in the US, UK, Europe and Southeast Asian countries will be on Modi duty. They are postponing their annual Diwali or winter holidays. Some of them will campaign for the BJP's PM candidate in their native towns and villages while some will work with Modi's team. Smita Barooah, an addictions counsellor working in Singapore, is a typical example. She's planning a three-month sabbatical starting January to work for the BJP campaign in India.

Indian American businessman Chandrakant Patel, who heads Overseas Friends of BJP in the US, will be in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi during the state elections next month. He says nearly 5,000 Indian Americans will fly down to India before next year's elections. "Our young team here is also sensitising lakhs of Indians in America to register themselves as voters just in case they happen to be present in India during the elections and can vote," he says.

Around 3,500 NRIs in the UK are planning to come to India closer to the 2014 general elections. "Many of us are postponing our annual December visits to be available to campaign for Mr Modi," says Amit Tiwari, general secretary of the Overseas Friends of BJP for the UK and Europe. A banker, Tiwari is connecting NRIs wanting to do campaign work during coming state elections with local and regional-level BJP workers.

What explains this unusual degree of direct participation by NRIs in the Modi campaign? "This is the Chetan Bhagat generation, which is seeking change. In Modi, NRIs see an opportunity to drive this change," says Meghnad Desai, a prominent NRI and commentator.

Sociologist Dipankar Gupta says, "BJP's ardent supporters overseas are sensing victory so they want to participate." "The fact that Modi is perceived to be corporate-friendly - and most migrant Indians have benefitted from their association with Corporate America - makes him more appealing," he adds.

Entrepreneur Kalpesh Chavda (34), who is based in Singapore, has been in touch with Arvind Gupta, head of BJP's IT cell. Chavda says he plans to come down to India for at least five weeks before the elections.

"The mindset of the Indian diaspora is different this time. Earlier they would send emails or SMSes to people back home. Now they want to be part of direct action," says Tiwari.

Some NRIs say they plan to use their familiarity with social media and Internet campaigns in the West to launch similar campaigns in India. The math is simple, they argue.

Around 120 million Indians will be eligible to vote for the first time in the 2014 elections. And many more are in the 18-25 category. Smartphone usage is rising rapidly in India, and the young are the biggest smartphone users. The share of young voters in total voting population is around 20%, most estimates suggest.

Source: EconomicTimes

ET Poll for 2014 Election Survey by Nielsen: BJP Ahead in UP & Bihar

Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are seeing a rising tide of support for BJP, but not enough for it to sweep the electoral stakes in the two main battleground states, a survey commissioned by ET has found.

The survey of around 8,500 voters, one of the biggest and most exhaustive exercises of its kind in the two states that hold the key to who rules the nation, shows BJP's prime ministerial face, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, increasing his popular rating and boosting his party's acceptability among voters of UP and Bihar. But BJP is still seen winning a little over a third of the 120 Lok Sabha seats on offer in the two states.

Carried out between September 4 and 26, the survey by research firm Nielsen put BJP on course to win 44 seats - 27 in UP and 17 in Bihar. With the road to power at the Centre certain to pass through these states, this tally will not be enough to put BJP in the comfort zone nationally and will require its current momentum to gain much more strength and breadth between now and the general elections. But it can take some heart from the fact that the survey, a part of which was conducted before Modi was formally anointed as its face for 2014, points to him becoming the chief decider of the electoral outcome.

The big picture, the survey shows, portends hefty losses to the electoral clout of Modi's challengers, Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP and Nitish Kumar in Bihar. In UP, the poll indicates BJP once again emerging the number one player, with the projection of 27 seats almost three times the number it won in the two previous encounters.

BJP appears to be eating into the support base of all its rivals, taking up its vote share to 28 per cent from 17 per cent in 2009. The next polls, according to the survey, could be especially brutal for the SP and the national ambitions of Mulayam Singh Yadav.

SP's vote share is seen dropping 5 percentage points to 18 per cent, which could bring down its tally to 16 seats. BSP and Congress, too, are seen being hit, although in varying measures. An upper caste consolidation in Modi's favour may result in a depletion of BSP's support base, even though the survey projected the party retaining its current tally of 20 seats as its core Dalit vote remains intact.

Source: EconomicTimes

BJP will be Single Largest Party after 2014 Polls:Times Now-CVoter Survey

New Delhi: In what may be a comforting development for the principal opposition party, BJP, a new poll survey has suggested that it will emerge as the single largest party in 2014 Lok Sabha election by winning close to 162 seats.

The survey has also predicted grim prospects for the ruling Congress party, saying it would be able to win only 102 Lok Sabha seats, reports said on Thursday.

The survey, however, claims that even after emerging as the single largest party, the alliance led by the BJP will be well short of a majority, leaving several regional players holding the key to power in New Delhi.

As per the Times Now-CVoter survey, the BJP-led NDA is projected to get 186 and the UPA led by Congress is expected to win around 117 seats, which would mean 240 crucial seats with go to others.

The survey also predicts that Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress, the Left Front, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Mayawati's BSP will emerge as the most important players after the 2014 polls.

The outcome of the 2014 elections will make government formation an extremely complicated exercise, giving the regional satraps more bargaining power.

The survey found that reaching the majority mark of 272 in the 543-member Lok Sabha will be a far cry for any pre-election formation.

Among the "others", the Left Front is projected to get the largest number, 32 seats, followed by BSP with 31 and AIADMK with 28 seats. The SP and Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress are expected to bag 25 and 23 seats respectively.

The survey also highlights that the Janta Dal (U) is likely to suffer major drubbing following its slit with BJP and its seats tally will expectedly come down to 9 from 20 in 2009.

The survey predicts a hung Parliament in 2014 with nobody really in a clear position to form a government if current voter pattern continues ill the actual voting.

The ruling Congress is likely to suffer major losses in those state that helped it propel the UPA to power in 2009. More importantly, the electoral gains in Karnataka will be too short to make up for the loss elsewhere, the survey says.

The BJP, on the other hand, will make significant gains in Rajasthan and relatively smaller gains in several other states; this is unlikely to be enough to put it in prime position for power.

The poll indicates Congress suffering the worst setback in Andhra Pradesh, going from 33 seats to just seven, while Jagan Reddy's YSR Congress and Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) are predicted to get 13 seats each. Among other states where Congress is expected to suffer losses are Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Kerala.

In Rajasthan, the survey showed Congress winning just five seats, a loss of 15 seats, all of them picked up by the BJP. Similarly, in UP too, the Congress' tally will come down from 21 as it will lose 16 seats and the same would be bagged by Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

The survey also indicated that Delhi would go to the BJP which would bag six of the seven seats. In Maharashtra, the survey showed the Congress losing six from its 2009 tally of 17 seats and NCP losing two, while BJP and the Shiv Sena are expected to pick up four and three seats each over their 2009 tally, bringing their tally to 13 and 14 seats respectively of the state's 48 seats.

In West Bengal, Trinamool will gain four seats in 2014 taking its tally to 23 and the Left will just pick up one more totalling 16 seats. The Congress would be a major loser here, losing three of its six seats in West Bengal.

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK's tally is expected to come down to just five seats from 18 in 2009, while AIADMK's will go up from nine to 28 seats.

Source: ZeeNews

2014 Lok Sabha Elections: Satirical 'Modi vs Rahul' Debate Video Goes Viral

In the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a satirical video titled "Rahul vs Modi" debating on India's potential prime ministerial candidates has gone viral on social networking sites.

The video is a parody on the well-known debate between NDA prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who has become famous for his rallies addressed across the nation, and projected Congress nominee Rahul Gandhi.

The video begins with two surgeons in an operating theatre. A power outage in the building begins the never-ending discussion on 'Rahul vs Modi'.

While Rahul has painted secularism as Congress' prime electoral agenda against the communal BJP, Modi has been rehashing his 'Gujarat model of development' at every rally he has addressed this year.

Every major subject that has become a dispute between the two biggest political parties has been mocked in the video, which has received more than 70,000 views on Youtube since it was uploaded on Sunday.



From 2002 Gujarat riots to corruption scams that have marred the UPA governance, the political satire compels the viewer to choose between the better of two evils.

The video has been produced by comedy collective "All India Bakchod', the same group of stand-up comedians who had pushed out "It's Your Fault" parody on India's rape culture featuring actress Kalki Koechlin and VJ Juhi Pandey.

"It's Your Fault" had also gone viral on social media, getting around 1, 25,000 hits in less than 48 hours of its release.

Source: International Business Times