Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are seeing a rising tide of support for BJP, but not enough for it to sweep the electoral stakes in the two main battleground states, a survey commissioned by ET has found.
The survey of around 8,500 voters, one of the biggest and most exhaustive exercises of its kind in the two states that hold the key to who rules the nation, shows BJP's prime ministerial face, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, increasing his popular rating and boosting his party's acceptability among voters of UP and Bihar. But BJP is still seen winning a little over a third of the 120 Lok Sabha seats on offer in the two states.
The big picture, the survey shows, portends hefty losses to the electoral clout of Modi's challengers, Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP and Nitish Kumar in Bihar. In UP, the poll indicates BJP once again emerging the number one player, with the projection of 27 seats almost three times the number it won in the two previous encounters.
BJP appears to be eating into the support base of all its rivals, taking up its vote share to 28 per cent from 17 per cent in 2009. The next polls, according to the survey, could be especially brutal for the SP and the national ambitions of Mulayam Singh Yadav.
SP's vote share is seen dropping 5 percentage points to 18 per cent, which could bring down its tally to 16 seats. BSP and Congress, too, are seen being hit, although in varying measures. An upper caste consolidation in Modi's favour may result in a depletion of BSP's support base, even though the survey projected the party retaining its current tally of 20 seats as its core Dalit vote remains intact.
Source: EconomicTimes
The survey of around 8,500 voters, one of the biggest and most exhaustive exercises of its kind in the two states that hold the key to who rules the nation, shows BJP's prime ministerial face, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, increasing his popular rating and boosting his party's acceptability among voters of UP and Bihar. But BJP is still seen winning a little over a third of the 120 Lok Sabha seats on offer in the two states.
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Carried out between September 4 and 26, the survey by research firm Nielsen put BJP on course to win 44 seats - 27 in UP and 17 in Bihar. With the road to power at the Centre certain to pass through these states, this tally will not be enough to put BJP in the comfort zone nationally and will require its current momentum to gain much more strength and breadth between now and the general elections. But it can take some heart from the fact that the survey, a part of which was conducted before Modi was formally anointed as its face for 2014, points to him becoming the chief decider of the electoral outcome. |
The big picture, the survey shows, portends hefty losses to the electoral clout of Modi's challengers, Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP and Nitish Kumar in Bihar. In UP, the poll indicates BJP once again emerging the number one player, with the projection of 27 seats almost three times the number it won in the two previous encounters.
BJP appears to be eating into the support base of all its rivals, taking up its vote share to 28 per cent from 17 per cent in 2009. The next polls, according to the survey, could be especially brutal for the SP and the national ambitions of Mulayam Singh Yadav.
SP's vote share is seen dropping 5 percentage points to 18 per cent, which could bring down its tally to 16 seats. BSP and Congress, too, are seen being hit, although in varying measures. An upper caste consolidation in Modi's favour may result in a depletion of BSP's support base, even though the survey projected the party retaining its current tally of 20 seats as its core Dalit vote remains intact.
Source: EconomicTimes
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