BANGALORE: On Sunday, when BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi addressed an election rally at Haveri in Karnataka, that was his 13th in the southern state in the past four months.
The 63-year-old Gujarat chief minister is expected to address three more rallies before the state goes to polls on April 17, and this shows the party's focus on turning around its fortunes in a state where it badly lost assembly elections less than a year ago. "We were sulking after we lost power in the assembly elections, but after Modi's name was announced as the party's candidate for the PM post, our party came back to life in the State," says former Law Minister S Suresh Kumar.
Until the BJP announced its PM candidate, its leaders in Karnataka were licking their wounds from the humiliating defeat in the assembly polls - from being the ruling party, it ended up third by vote share. Modi, however, succeeded in bringing the likes of BS Yeddyurappa, the first BJP chief minister in the south, and B Sriramulu back into the party fold. Many party men buried their hatchet, at least temporarily, and are putting up a show of unity to deliver the highest possible number of seats from Karnataka. For instance, in April second week, BJP leader Ananth Kumar travelled to Shimoga to campaign for Yeddyurappa with whom he shares an uneasy relationship.
Karnataka's leaders sound upbeat pointing to the poll arithmetic. Yeddyurappa's Karnataka Janata Party and Sriramulu's BSR Congress ate away a good chunk of BJP votes in last year's assembly polls. While Yeddyurappa's outfit polled 9.8% of votes, Sriramulu got 2.7%. If these numbers are added up, the Congress vote share of 36.6% still looks decent but not spectacular.
The Congress benefited more from BJP's internal troubles. "We are strong in Karnataka. We should be able to win between 16 and 21 seats," says Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parikkar, who is also a member of BJP's national election campaign committee. In the 2009 polls, the BJP won 19 of Karnataka's 28 seats, which dropped to 18 after the party lost Chikmagalur-Udupi seat in the by-polls.
Petroleum Minister M Veerappa Moily, a senior Congress leader from Karnataka, however, sounds skeptical of the BJP's prospects. "In Karnataka, the BJP will not get more than three seats," he insists, pointing to the declining acceptance of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance among political parties. "During the Vajpayee period, the NDA had 23 alliance partners. Today they have just two-three allies."
UP, Bihar, MP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat are the party's high-stake states, but down south, Karnataka is its biggest hope. Its presence in Tamil Nadu is negligible - it took a puny 2.2% vote share in the 2011 assembly polls. It is long since the ruling AIADMK and the DMK have deserted it, though Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa calls Modi a "personal friend". But ahead of the polls, the party has been able to sew up a string of alliances - with actor 'Captain' Vijayakanth's DMDK, Vaiko's MDMK, Dr S Ramadoss' PMK, and the Kongunadu Party. In the 2011 assembly polls, Vijayakanth's fledgling outfit cornered 7.88% vote, while PMK got 5.23%.
Both wield influence in select pockets in northern Tamil Nadu, but it is unclear if voters of one party will back the candidate of the other just because they are all part of the NDA. Nevertheless, analysts think the initiative will not go in vain, and might yield a low single digit seats for the NDA. "In Tamil Nadu, this rainbow coalition will have its own strength in some pockets," says Parikkar. In 1999, the saffron party had puzzled poll pundits by winning four seats out of the six seats it contested under a Vajpayee wave, and optimists predict a repeat of that performance under Modi.
Though AP has never been a stronghold, the BJP is expected to do relatively better in the 25-seat Seemandhra region compared with the 17-seat Telangana, thanks to its alliance with the Telugu Desam Party. "Without this alliance, the BJP party has zero chances of winning seats on its own. In Seemandhra, the fight is going to be between the YSR Congress and the TDP-BJP combine and some of the anti-Congress votes could translate into a few seats for BJP," says Rajesh Chakrobarti, associate professor at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy at Hyderabad's Indian School of Business.
"The situation is different in Telangana where the main fight is expected between the TRS and the Congress... the BJP may not gain much here," he adds. In the undivided AP's 42 LS seats, BJP is contesting from 13 and the TDP 29. Assembly polls are also being held simultaneously.
"Thanks to a strong Modi wave, we hope the TDP-BJP combine to form the government in Seemandhra and win 15 out of 25 LS seats," says Kambampati Haribabu, the party's president in AP.
BJP Attempts to Break Kerala Jinx
Kerala has remained beyond BJP's reach. The BJP has never been able to get a toehold in the state where politics remains polarised between the two major coalitions - the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the Left Democratic Front. The party has never been able to win a seat either in the state assembly or for the Lok Sabha from Kerala. However, it is making an all out effort this time to win at least one of the state's 20 Lok Sabha seats.
"We expect our candidate O Rajagopal to win the Thiruvananthapuram seat," says V Muralidharan, BJP's state president. Rajagopal, a BJP veteran, was a minister of state for railways in the Vajpayee government, after becoming a Rajya Sabha member from Madhya Pradesh. In the state capital, he is locked in a three-cornered contest with Congress' Shashi Tharoor and CPI's Bennet Abraham. The BJP is also trying its best in Kasargod, Kerala's northern-most seat neighbouring Mangalore in Karnataka. When Modi toured Karnataka last week, he made it a point to address a rally in Kasargod, conscious of its potential for the party.
Source: Economic Times
The 63-year-old Gujarat chief minister is expected to address three more rallies before the state goes to polls on April 17, and this shows the party's focus on turning around its fortunes in a state where it badly lost assembly elections less than a year ago. "We were sulking after we lost power in the assembly elections, but after Modi's name was announced as the party's candidate for the PM post, our party came back to life in the State," says former Law Minister S Suresh Kumar.
Until the BJP announced its PM candidate, its leaders in Karnataka were licking their wounds from the humiliating defeat in the assembly polls - from being the ruling party, it ended up third by vote share. Modi, however, succeeded in bringing the likes of BS Yeddyurappa, the first BJP chief minister in the south, and B Sriramulu back into the party fold. Many party men buried their hatchet, at least temporarily, and are putting up a show of unity to deliver the highest possible number of seats from Karnataka. For instance, in April second week, BJP leader Ananth Kumar travelled to Shimoga to campaign for Yeddyurappa with whom he shares an uneasy relationship.
Karnataka's leaders sound upbeat pointing to the poll arithmetic. Yeddyurappa's Karnataka Janata Party and Sriramulu's BSR Congress ate away a good chunk of BJP votes in last year's assembly polls. While Yeddyurappa's outfit polled 9.8% of votes, Sriramulu got 2.7%. If these numbers are added up, the Congress vote share of 36.6% still looks decent but not spectacular.
The Congress benefited more from BJP's internal troubles. "We are strong in Karnataka. We should be able to win between 16 and 21 seats," says Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parikkar, who is also a member of BJP's national election campaign committee. In the 2009 polls, the BJP won 19 of Karnataka's 28 seats, which dropped to 18 after the party lost Chikmagalur-Udupi seat in the by-polls.
Petroleum Minister M Veerappa Moily, a senior Congress leader from Karnataka, however, sounds skeptical of the BJP's prospects. "In Karnataka, the BJP will not get more than three seats," he insists, pointing to the declining acceptance of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance among political parties. "During the Vajpayee period, the NDA had 23 alliance partners. Today they have just two-three allies."
UP, Bihar, MP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat are the party's high-stake states, but down south, Karnataka is its biggest hope. Its presence in Tamil Nadu is negligible - it took a puny 2.2% vote share in the 2011 assembly polls. It is long since the ruling AIADMK and the DMK have deserted it, though Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa calls Modi a "personal friend". But ahead of the polls, the party has been able to sew up a string of alliances - with actor 'Captain' Vijayakanth's DMDK, Vaiko's MDMK, Dr S Ramadoss' PMK, and the Kongunadu Party. In the 2011 assembly polls, Vijayakanth's fledgling outfit cornered 7.88% vote, while PMK got 5.23%.
Both wield influence in select pockets in northern Tamil Nadu, but it is unclear if voters of one party will back the candidate of the other just because they are all part of the NDA. Nevertheless, analysts think the initiative will not go in vain, and might yield a low single digit seats for the NDA. "In Tamil Nadu, this rainbow coalition will have its own strength in some pockets," says Parikkar. In 1999, the saffron party had puzzled poll pundits by winning four seats out of the six seats it contested under a Vajpayee wave, and optimists predict a repeat of that performance under Modi.
Though AP has never been a stronghold, the BJP is expected to do relatively better in the 25-seat Seemandhra region compared with the 17-seat Telangana, thanks to its alliance with the Telugu Desam Party. "Without this alliance, the BJP party has zero chances of winning seats on its own. In Seemandhra, the fight is going to be between the YSR Congress and the TDP-BJP combine and some of the anti-Congress votes could translate into a few seats for BJP," says Rajesh Chakrobarti, associate professor at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy at Hyderabad's Indian School of Business.
"The situation is different in Telangana where the main fight is expected between the TRS and the Congress... the BJP may not gain much here," he adds. In the undivided AP's 42 LS seats, BJP is contesting from 13 and the TDP 29. Assembly polls are also being held simultaneously.
"Thanks to a strong Modi wave, we hope the TDP-BJP combine to form the government in Seemandhra and win 15 out of 25 LS seats," says Kambampati Haribabu, the party's president in AP.
BJP Attempts to Break Kerala Jinx
Kerala has remained beyond BJP's reach. The BJP has never been able to get a toehold in the state where politics remains polarised between the two major coalitions - the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the Left Democratic Front. The party has never been able to win a seat either in the state assembly or for the Lok Sabha from Kerala. However, it is making an all out effort this time to win at least one of the state's 20 Lok Sabha seats.
"We expect our candidate O Rajagopal to win the Thiruvananthapuram seat," says V Muralidharan, BJP's state president. Rajagopal, a BJP veteran, was a minister of state for railways in the Vajpayee government, after becoming a Rajya Sabha member from Madhya Pradesh. In the state capital, he is locked in a three-cornered contest with Congress' Shashi Tharoor and CPI's Bennet Abraham. The BJP is also trying its best in Kasargod, Kerala's northern-most seat neighbouring Mangalore in Karnataka. When Modi toured Karnataka last week, he made it a point to address a rally in Kasargod, conscious of its potential for the party.
Source: Economic Times
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