New Delhi: The BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI (Athavale) alliance is expected to win 6-7 more seats than the ruling Congress-NCP combine in Maharashtra. According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS election tracker, the BJP-Shiv Sena and RPI (A) alliance is projected to win 23-29 seats, if the Lok Sabha elections are held today. The ruling Congress-NCP combine is projected to get 16-22 seats according to the seat projections by Dr Rajeeva Kharandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai Maharashtra has a total 48 Lok Sabha seats and others are expected to get 1-5 seats.
In India's second politically most important state, the BJP-Shiv Sena - RPI (Athavale) combine seems to have established a clear lead over the ruling Congress-NCP alliance. According to survey conducted in the third week of February, the BJP-SS-RPI (A) is expected to get 42 per cent votes. The Congress-NCP alliance is likely to get 36 per cent votes.
In the tracker survey conducted in January, the BJP-SS-RPI (A) combine had got 44 per cent votes and the Congress-NCP combine had got 35 per cent votes. In the latest survey the BJP-SS-RPI (A) combine has lost 2 per cent votes and the Congress-NCP alliance has gained 1 per cent votes.
The AAP has maintained its 5 per cent vote share even in the latest survey. The MNS has gained 2 per cent votes when compared to its just 2 per cent vote share in January. The others are projected to get 9 per cent votes.
In a party-wise estimate, the BJP's vote share has declined since the last survey. But, its oldest ally Shiv Sena's share has gone up. The Congress is doing better than the NCP.
In January survey, the BJP had got 36 per cent vote share. It has now come down to 29 per cent. The Shiv Sena had gone just 6 per cent in January. It has now gone up to 11 per cent. The RPI (A) has retained its 2 per cent projected vote share. The Congress has lost just 1 per cent vote share. It was 29 per cent in January. It has now come down by 1 per cent. During the same period the NCP has gained 2 per cent votes.
Undecided voters in July - 2013 was 27 per cent. It was 11 per cent in January this year. It now stands at 15 per cent.
PM choice - Modi still ahead, but loses 9 per cent
BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi is still ahead of all others in the fray. But, his popularity has declined since January. In January Modi had the backing of 40 per cent respondents for the post of the PM. It has now come down to 31 per cent. Rahul Gandhi's popularity has gone up by 2 per cent (from 14 per cent to 16 per cent). Sonia Gandhi has also gained 2 per cent (from 4 per cent to 6 per cent).
Interestingly, Modi's popularity is highest in Marathwada (45 per cent) and North Maharashtra (44 per cent). The gap between Modi and Rahul Gandhi narrows in Vidarbha (27 per cent) and Western Maharashtra (24 per cent). Rahul Gandhi has got 12 per cent in Marathwada, 16 per cent in North Maharashtra, 23 per cent in Vidarbha and 17 per cent in Western Maharashtra.
According survey findings, the emphasis on the PM candidate is declining. Most respondents answer that their vote will be decided by candidates in their constituency. Overall 43 per cent feel that the local candidate is more important than all other considerations. 35 per cent feel that the party of the candidate matters most. Only 12 per cent feel that the PM candidate of a party matters more than all other things.
The Congress - NCP alliance also appears to be on a better footing among voters of the two parties compared to January survey. 50 per cent Congress voters and 54 per cent NCP voters support the continuation of alliance.
Most people are opposed to the idea of NCP-BJP alliance. However opposition to it is weaker in North Maharashtra and Marathwada regions. Over 50 per cent say no to NCP-BJP alliance.
MNS factor
Most voters still want the MNS led by Raj Thackeray to go it alone in the Lok Sabha polls. This sentiment is the strongest in Mumbai - Thane region, the stronghold of the MNS. Overall 39 per cent and 64 per cent MNS voters want the MNS to go solo. Among those who want MNS to tie up, most (59 per cent) want it to go with BJP-Shiv Sena - RPI (A) alliance. Just 11 per cent back its alliance with the Congress-NCP combine.
Interestingly, two thirds of the respondents have heard about MNS' toll booth agitation. 66 per cent respondents are aware of it. In North Maharashtra, it has got a very strong support.
Satisfaction with state government
Net satisfaction with the ruling Congress-NCP combine has improved, but it is still in the negative. When compared to January (38 per cent), the satisfaction level has gone up to 45 per cent now. However 50 per cent respondents are still not satisfied with the government. It was 48 per cent in January.
The dissatisfaction with Manmohan Singh as the PM has seen a decline. 50 per cent of the respondents are dissatisfied with him now, compared to 41 per cent in the last January. Only one in four respondents in Maharashtra want to give the UPA a third chance at the Centre. 57 per cent respondents feel that the UPA should not get another chance.
Lokniti-IBN Tracker Survey, February 2014
Maharashtra State Specific Findings
Fieldwork from Feb 17-23, 2014
Survey in 30 Lok Sabha seats
Targeted sample size - 1800
Achieved sample size - 1456
Seat Projections (Seats: 48)
Note: Seat projections by Prof. Rajeeva Kharandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai
Table 1: Projected vote share for Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra
Source: IBNLive
In India's second politically most important state, the BJP-Shiv Sena - RPI (Athavale) combine seems to have established a clear lead over the ruling Congress-NCP alliance. According to survey conducted in the third week of February, the BJP-SS-RPI (A) is expected to get 42 per cent votes. The Congress-NCP alliance is likely to get 36 per cent votes.
In the tracker survey conducted in January, the BJP-SS-RPI (A) combine had got 44 per cent votes and the Congress-NCP combine had got 35 per cent votes. In the latest survey the BJP-SS-RPI (A) combine has lost 2 per cent votes and the Congress-NCP alliance has gained 1 per cent votes.
The AAP has maintained its 5 per cent vote share even in the latest survey. The MNS has gained 2 per cent votes when compared to its just 2 per cent vote share in January. The others are projected to get 9 per cent votes.
In a party-wise estimate, the BJP's vote share has declined since the last survey. But, its oldest ally Shiv Sena's share has gone up. The Congress is doing better than the NCP.
In January survey, the BJP had got 36 per cent vote share. It has now come down to 29 per cent. The Shiv Sena had gone just 6 per cent in January. It has now gone up to 11 per cent. The RPI (A) has retained its 2 per cent projected vote share. The Congress has lost just 1 per cent vote share. It was 29 per cent in January. It has now come down by 1 per cent. During the same period the NCP has gained 2 per cent votes.
Undecided voters in July - 2013 was 27 per cent. It was 11 per cent in January this year. It now stands at 15 per cent.
PM choice - Modi still ahead, but loses 9 per cent
BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi is still ahead of all others in the fray. But, his popularity has declined since January. In January Modi had the backing of 40 per cent respondents for the post of the PM. It has now come down to 31 per cent. Rahul Gandhi's popularity has gone up by 2 per cent (from 14 per cent to 16 per cent). Sonia Gandhi has also gained 2 per cent (from 4 per cent to 6 per cent).
Interestingly, Modi's popularity is highest in Marathwada (45 per cent) and North Maharashtra (44 per cent). The gap between Modi and Rahul Gandhi narrows in Vidarbha (27 per cent) and Western Maharashtra (24 per cent). Rahul Gandhi has got 12 per cent in Marathwada, 16 per cent in North Maharashtra, 23 per cent in Vidarbha and 17 per cent in Western Maharashtra.
According survey findings, the emphasis on the PM candidate is declining. Most respondents answer that their vote will be decided by candidates in their constituency. Overall 43 per cent feel that the local candidate is more important than all other considerations. 35 per cent feel that the party of the candidate matters most. Only 12 per cent feel that the PM candidate of a party matters more than all other things.
The Congress - NCP alliance also appears to be on a better footing among voters of the two parties compared to January survey. 50 per cent Congress voters and 54 per cent NCP voters support the continuation of alliance.
Most people are opposed to the idea of NCP-BJP alliance. However opposition to it is weaker in North Maharashtra and Marathwada regions. Over 50 per cent say no to NCP-BJP alliance.
MNS factor
Most voters still want the MNS led by Raj Thackeray to go it alone in the Lok Sabha polls. This sentiment is the strongest in Mumbai - Thane region, the stronghold of the MNS. Overall 39 per cent and 64 per cent MNS voters want the MNS to go solo. Among those who want MNS to tie up, most (59 per cent) want it to go with BJP-Shiv Sena - RPI (A) alliance. Just 11 per cent back its alliance with the Congress-NCP combine.
Interestingly, two thirds of the respondents have heard about MNS' toll booth agitation. 66 per cent respondents are aware of it. In North Maharashtra, it has got a very strong support.
Satisfaction with state government
Net satisfaction with the ruling Congress-NCP combine has improved, but it is still in the negative. When compared to January (38 per cent), the satisfaction level has gone up to 45 per cent now. However 50 per cent respondents are still not satisfied with the government. It was 48 per cent in January.
The dissatisfaction with Manmohan Singh as the PM has seen a decline. 50 per cent of the respondents are dissatisfied with him now, compared to 41 per cent in the last January. Only one in four respondents in Maharashtra want to give the UPA a third chance at the Centre. 57 per cent respondents feel that the UPA should not get another chance.
Lokniti-IBN Tracker Survey, February 2014
Maharashtra State Specific Findings
Fieldwork from Feb 17-23, 2014
Survey in 30 Lok Sabha seats
Targeted sample size - 1800
Achieved sample size - 1456
Seat Projections (Seats: 48)
Party/Front
|
Projected Seats
|
| Congress+NCP | 16-22 |
| BJP+SS | 23-29 |
| Others | 1-5 |
Table 1: Projected vote share for Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra
| Alliance/Party | 2009 Actual |
July 2013 Survey estimate |
January 2014 Survey estimate |
February 2014 Survey estimate |
| INC-NCP | 39 | 43 | 35 | 36 |
| BJP-SS-RPI (A) | 35 | 36 | 44 | 42 |
| AAP | - | - | 5 | 5 |
| BSP | 5 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| MNS | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Others | 17 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
Source: IBNLive
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