New Delhi: The Lok Sabha election may throw up surprising results in the national capital. According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS election tracker both the AAP and BJP are expected to get 2-4 seats each in Delhi. The Congress is expected to get 0-2 seats according to the seat projection by Prof. Rajeeva Kharandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai. The Congress seems to have slightly recovered from the devastating loss in Assembly elections in the last three months.
The Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP are likely to have a neck and neck fight in the 7 Lok Sabha seats of Delhi in the coming elections. According to the survey, the AAP vote share has come down by a huge 13 per cent when compared to our previous survey conducted in January. In January the AAP had got 48 per cent vote share and the BJP had 30 per cent while the Congress had got a mere 16 per cent vote share.
The popularity of the AAP seems to have taken a big hit in the last two months. The survey findings show that the BJP has gained 6 per cent votes and the Congress also has gained 6 per cent votes during the same period.
However, the AAP is still very much in the race. According to the latest survey, the BJP is ahead of the AAP by just 1 per cent with overall 36 per cent vote share. The AAP has got 35 per cent and the Congress has got 22 per cent vote share.
Sample size in February 2014 is 985 and the sample size in January 2014 was 951 in Delhi.
The AAP seems to have lost the support of first time voters in the age group of 18-25 years in a big way. Since January it has seen a 27 per cent decline. In the January survey it was 64 per cent and it has now come down to 37 per cent which is certainly a worrying factor for the AAP. It has also seen a steady decline of support among all other sections.
Among the Punjabi Khatris, the AAP seems to have lost 21 per cent votes in less than two months. It was 56 per cent in January. It has now come down to 35 per cent. It has also lost 19 per cent lower class, 18 per cent college educated, 16 per cent women, 16 per cent middle class and 15 per cent Muslim votes during the same period.
AAP still the most preferred choice for Delhi Assembly
The AAP has something to cheer about. Interestingly, it is still the most favoured choice of Delhiites, if the Assembly elections are once again held today. A whopping 46 per cent voters still back the AAP for the state Assembly. The BJP has got just 30 per cent and the Congress has got just 18 per cent votes for the Delhi assembly.
Arvind Kejriwal Resignation Wrong:
However, most people of the opinion that Arvind Kejriwal's decision to resign over Jan Lokpal Bill was wrong, particularly middle and upper classes feel that he should not have resigned over it. Overall 44 per cent respondents feel that it was a wrong decision and overall 33 per cent feel that it was a right decision to quit. A total of 46 per cent respondents among the upper middle class and 41 per cent respondents among the poor feel that the quitting was wrong.
The dissatisfaction with AAP government, although still low, goes up by three times since January. It was just 9 per cent in January and it has now gone up to 26 per cent. 70 per cent respondents are still happy with the performance of the 49 day AAP government. It was 74 per cent in January.
Satisfaction with Kejriwal's performance as CM has also declined since January. It is now 67 per cent when compared to 76 per cent in January. Now 18 per cent respondents are dissatisfied when compared to just 7 per cent in January.
However, most people of the opinion that corruption declined under the AAP government. Overall 47 per cent feel that the corruption has declined under the AAP. Just 6 per cent feel that it has increased under the AAP.
Modi beats Kejriwal in PM Race:
In the PM preference of Delhi voters, Narendra Modi has overtaken Arvind Kejriwal when compared to January. Now 37 per cent respondents back Modi for the post PM as against just 26 per cent back Kejriwal for the post of the PM. In January Kejriwal had got 34 per cent backing and Modi had got 32 per cent backing.
Rahul Gandhi has also improved his position. He has got 15 per cent backing when compared to just 8 per cent in January.
However, in a direct face off Kejriwal overtakes Modi with the backing of Congress voters. He gets over 50 per cent backing as against Modi's 39 per cent.
Majority of the people of the opinion that Kejriwal should not have sat on a dharna outside the Rail Bhawan; nearly three in 10 AAP supporters also think it was inappropriate. Overall 50 per cent feel that it was inappropriate and 43 per cent feel that it was right on his part to sit in a dharna.
Interestingly four out of 10 respondents had not heard about the AAP government's Law minister Somnath Bharti's Khirki Extension mid-night raid.
Most people agreed with the view that AAP is more interested in LS polls than working for Delhi. The survey reveals that 47 per cent people agree that it was more interested in Lok Sabha elections than working for the Delhi.
Interestingly the AAP seems to have managed to convince the people that Congress and BJP have a nexus. Most people (57 per cent) surveyed agree that BJP and Congress are hand in glove to prevent AAP from performing.
Eight out of 10 respondents support AAP's populist decisions related to power and water; support greatest among respondents from lower class. Overall 82 per cent support such decisions. Among the lower class it is 94 per cent.
Source: IBNLive
The Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP are likely to have a neck and neck fight in the 7 Lok Sabha seats of Delhi in the coming elections. According to the survey, the AAP vote share has come down by a huge 13 per cent when compared to our previous survey conducted in January. In January the AAP had got 48 per cent vote share and the BJP had 30 per cent while the Congress had got a mere 16 per cent vote share.
The popularity of the AAP seems to have taken a big hit in the last two months. The survey findings show that the BJP has gained 6 per cent votes and the Congress also has gained 6 per cent votes during the same period.
However, the AAP is still very much in the race. According to the latest survey, the BJP is ahead of the AAP by just 1 per cent with overall 36 per cent vote share. The AAP has got 35 per cent and the Congress has got 22 per cent vote share.
Sample size in February 2014 is 985 and the sample size in January 2014 was 951 in Delhi.
The AAP seems to have lost the support of first time voters in the age group of 18-25 years in a big way. Since January it has seen a 27 per cent decline. In the January survey it was 64 per cent and it has now come down to 37 per cent which is certainly a worrying factor for the AAP. It has also seen a steady decline of support among all other sections.
Among the Punjabi Khatris, the AAP seems to have lost 21 per cent votes in less than two months. It was 56 per cent in January. It has now come down to 35 per cent. It has also lost 19 per cent lower class, 18 per cent college educated, 16 per cent women, 16 per cent middle class and 15 per cent Muslim votes during the same period.
AAP still the most preferred choice for Delhi Assembly
The AAP has something to cheer about. Interestingly, it is still the most favoured choice of Delhiites, if the Assembly elections are once again held today. A whopping 46 per cent voters still back the AAP for the state Assembly. The BJP has got just 30 per cent and the Congress has got just 18 per cent votes for the Delhi assembly.
Arvind Kejriwal Resignation Wrong:
However, most people of the opinion that Arvind Kejriwal's decision to resign over Jan Lokpal Bill was wrong, particularly middle and upper classes feel that he should not have resigned over it. Overall 44 per cent respondents feel that it was a wrong decision and overall 33 per cent feel that it was a right decision to quit. A total of 46 per cent respondents among the upper middle class and 41 per cent respondents among the poor feel that the quitting was wrong.
The dissatisfaction with AAP government, although still low, goes up by three times since January. It was just 9 per cent in January and it has now gone up to 26 per cent. 70 per cent respondents are still happy with the performance of the 49 day AAP government. It was 74 per cent in January.
Satisfaction with Kejriwal's performance as CM has also declined since January. It is now 67 per cent when compared to 76 per cent in January. Now 18 per cent respondents are dissatisfied when compared to just 7 per cent in January.
However, most people of the opinion that corruption declined under the AAP government. Overall 47 per cent feel that the corruption has declined under the AAP. Just 6 per cent feel that it has increased under the AAP.
Modi beats Kejriwal in PM Race:
In the PM preference of Delhi voters, Narendra Modi has overtaken Arvind Kejriwal when compared to January. Now 37 per cent respondents back Modi for the post PM as against just 26 per cent back Kejriwal for the post of the PM. In January Kejriwal had got 34 per cent backing and Modi had got 32 per cent backing.
Rahul Gandhi has also improved his position. He has got 15 per cent backing when compared to just 8 per cent in January.
However, in a direct face off Kejriwal overtakes Modi with the backing of Congress voters. He gets over 50 per cent backing as against Modi's 39 per cent.
Majority of the people of the opinion that Kejriwal should not have sat on a dharna outside the Rail Bhawan; nearly three in 10 AAP supporters also think it was inappropriate. Overall 50 per cent feel that it was inappropriate and 43 per cent feel that it was right on his part to sit in a dharna.
Interestingly four out of 10 respondents had not heard about the AAP government's Law minister Somnath Bharti's Khirki Extension mid-night raid.
Most people agreed with the view that AAP is more interested in LS polls than working for Delhi. The survey reveals that 47 per cent people agree that it was more interested in Lok Sabha elections than working for the Delhi.
Interestingly the AAP seems to have managed to convince the people that Congress and BJP have a nexus. Most people (57 per cent) surveyed agree that BJP and Congress are hand in glove to prevent AAP from performing.
Eight out of 10 respondents support AAP's populist decisions related to power and water; support greatest among respondents from lower class. Overall 82 per cent support such decisions. Among the lower class it is 94 per cent.
Source: IBNLive
No comments:
Post a Comment