New Delhi: The latest ABP News – Nielsen opinion poll has projected a further strengthening of Bhartiya Janta Paty’s hold in Uttar Pradesh and a very slight loss in Bihar, when compared to the January opinion poll.
But over all, the data reveals that if Lok Sabha elections were held right now, then BJP will emerge with maximum numbers from both states.
In UP, of the total 80 seats, BJP is likely to win 40 seats, compared to 10 in 2009. While Congress, which had the most (21) seats in 2009, will be reduced to just 7 seats on it own, and 4 more with RLD.
BSP and SP are also seen losing some of their vote share. In 2009 BSP and SP had 20 and 23 seats respectively; in the current poll, they are shown winning 13 and 14 seats respectively.
The Aam Admi Party also seems to have lost a minor bit of ground, according to the opinion poll’s results. From 2 seats predicted in the January survey, the number has come down to 1 in February. The vote share of the party has also come down by 1% from 6% to 5%.
Meanwhile, of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, RJD has fallen from 20 in 2009 to just 9 now, while the BJP has picked up, from 11 in 2009 to 21 now.
But comparing the present survey’s result to the one held in January 2014 reveals that BJP has lost some of its vote share while JDU has gained. In the January opinion poll, BJP was projected to win 24 seats and the JDU 6.
This poll was conducted between 4th February to 15th February 2014. A total of 29,252 people, across 129 constituencies in both states, were interviewed.
In Uttar Pradesh, 4537 from 20 parliamentary constituencies were interviewed, while in Bihar 2272 people from 10 parliamentary constituencies were interviewed.
Uttar Pradesh (Feb-2014 Survey)
If Lok Sabha elections are held today, then of the total 80 seats in UP, 11 are likely to go to the Congress-RLD combine, 40 to BJP, 13 tp BSP, 14 to SP, 1to AAP and 1 to others.
According to the poll, Congress, on its own, is likely to win just 7 seats, compared to 21 on the 2009 elections. The current trend is also a drop from the previous opinion poll held in January, which projected 8 seats for the Congress. The vote share of the party has also dropped from 18.4% in 2009 to 13% in 2014.
BSP too seems to be on a downward trend, with number of seats for the party coming down from 20 in 2009 to 15 in the January poll, to 13 in the current survey. The party’s vote share has also moved from 27.2% to 23% to 22%.
Vote share of the ruling SP is 16% currently, the opinion poll has predicted. In 2009, the vote share of the party had been 23.5%. In terms of seats, the party seems consistent at 16 in both the surveys held this year; in the previous election, SP had won 23 Lok Sabha seats.
With barely a few months in existence, AAP has manged to command 5% of the vote share in UP, with 1 seat, the poll has predicted. In the January poll, AAP was projected to win 2 seats with 6% vote share.
In keeping with the continuing trend in recent opinion polls, BJP has emerged as the largest party from the state, with 33% of the vote share, taking it to 40 seats. In the January poll, the party was show having 32% vote share, with 35 seats. In the previous Lok Sabha elections, BJP had a vote share of 17.3% with 10 seats.
Bihar (Feb-2014 Survey)
BJP is likely to emerge as the largest party in Bihar as well, with 21 seats and a vote share of 32 per cent, the opinion poll has predicted. But it is a slight drop from the opinion poll held in January with showed the party having a vote share of 35% with 24 seats. While in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections the party had won 11 seats.
Ruling JDU seems to be facing the heat after parting from ally BJP with its seats having dropped from the 20 it won in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. But the party has picked up a bit from the previous month. In the current ABP News opinion poll, the party is winning 9 seats with 14% of the vote share, while in the January survey the party was winning 6 seats with 11% vote share.
RJD is likely to win 5 seats with 17% of the vote share, according to the results of both opinion polls held this year. In 2009, the Lalu Yadav led party had won 4 seats with 19.36% vote share.
LJP meanwhile is expected to win at least one seat, with 6% vote share. In the previous elections the party had failed to win any seats in the Lok Sabha.
Source: ABPLive.in
But over all, the data reveals that if Lok Sabha elections were held right now, then BJP will emerge with maximum numbers from both states.
In UP, of the total 80 seats, BJP is likely to win 40 seats, compared to 10 in 2009. While Congress, which had the most (21) seats in 2009, will be reduced to just 7 seats on it own, and 4 more with RLD.
BSP and SP are also seen losing some of their vote share. In 2009 BSP and SP had 20 and 23 seats respectively; in the current poll, they are shown winning 13 and 14 seats respectively.
The Aam Admi Party also seems to have lost a minor bit of ground, according to the opinion poll’s results. From 2 seats predicted in the January survey, the number has come down to 1 in February. The vote share of the party has also come down by 1% from 6% to 5%.
Meanwhile, of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, RJD has fallen from 20 in 2009 to just 9 now, while the BJP has picked up, from 11 in 2009 to 21 now.
But comparing the present survey’s result to the one held in January 2014 reveals that BJP has lost some of its vote share while JDU has gained. In the January opinion poll, BJP was projected to win 24 seats and the JDU 6.
This poll was conducted between 4th February to 15th February 2014. A total of 29,252 people, across 129 constituencies in both states, were interviewed.
In Uttar Pradesh, 4537 from 20 parliamentary constituencies were interviewed, while in Bihar 2272 people from 10 parliamentary constituencies were interviewed.
Uttar Pradesh (Feb-2014 Survey)
If Lok Sabha elections are held today, then of the total 80 seats in UP, 11 are likely to go to the Congress-RLD combine, 40 to BJP, 13 tp BSP, 14 to SP, 1to AAP and 1 to others.
According to the poll, Congress, on its own, is likely to win just 7 seats, compared to 21 on the 2009 elections. The current trend is also a drop from the previous opinion poll held in January, which projected 8 seats for the Congress. The vote share of the party has also dropped from 18.4% in 2009 to 13% in 2014.
BSP too seems to be on a downward trend, with number of seats for the party coming down from 20 in 2009 to 15 in the January poll, to 13 in the current survey. The party’s vote share has also moved from 27.2% to 23% to 22%.
Vote share of the ruling SP is 16% currently, the opinion poll has predicted. In 2009, the vote share of the party had been 23.5%. In terms of seats, the party seems consistent at 16 in both the surveys held this year; in the previous election, SP had won 23 Lok Sabha seats.
With barely a few months in existence, AAP has manged to command 5% of the vote share in UP, with 1 seat, the poll has predicted. In the January poll, AAP was projected to win 2 seats with 6% vote share.
In keeping with the continuing trend in recent opinion polls, BJP has emerged as the largest party from the state, with 33% of the vote share, taking it to 40 seats. In the January poll, the party was show having 32% vote share, with 35 seats. In the previous Lok Sabha elections, BJP had a vote share of 17.3% with 10 seats.
Bihar (Feb-2014 Survey)
BJP is likely to emerge as the largest party in Bihar as well, with 21 seats and a vote share of 32 per cent, the opinion poll has predicted. But it is a slight drop from the opinion poll held in January with showed the party having a vote share of 35% with 24 seats. While in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections the party had won 11 seats.
Ruling JDU seems to be facing the heat after parting from ally BJP with its seats having dropped from the 20 it won in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. But the party has picked up a bit from the previous month. In the current ABP News opinion poll, the party is winning 9 seats with 14% of the vote share, while in the January survey the party was winning 6 seats with 11% vote share.
RJD is likely to win 5 seats with 17% of the vote share, according to the results of both opinion polls held this year. In 2009, the Lalu Yadav led party had won 4 seats with 19.36% vote share.
LJP meanwhile is expected to win at least one seat, with 6% vote share. In the previous elections the party had failed to win any seats in the Lok Sabha.
Source: ABPLive.in
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