New Delhi: BJP-lead NDA is on course to emerge the biggest in general elections due by May, reveals ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll.
The Opinion Poll has found that NDA is set to win 236 seats in the 543-seat parliament while the incumbent UPA-II government is projected to win mere 92 seats.
According to the projection, BJP alone will get 217 (won 116 seats in 2009) seats out of a total 543 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress is projected to get only 73 (won 206 seats in 2009) seats--133 less than 2009 seat position in the Lower House.
The non-UPA and non-NDA parties seem to be holding a key share of national vote bank, reveals the survey. Left parties are likely to gather 29 seats while Others in the political fray could likely bag 186 seats.
The poll forecast that the BJP would win the lion's share of the vote in many of the big states that typically decide the fate of the polls.
BJP is forecast to win 40 (won 11 in 2009) of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state in the country.
It is also predicted to emerge as the largest party in Bihar, with 21 (won 12 seats in 2009) of the state's 40 seats, and to win 19 (won 9 in 2009) of the 48 seats in Maharashtra. 7 seats go to Congress while NCP gets 7 seats. Shiv Sena gets 9 (won 11 in 2009) here.
BJP could bag 26 of Madhya Pradesh’s 29 seats and 22 out 26 seats from PM nominee Narendra Modi’s home turf Gujarat.
Rajasthan again where BJP is in power could give 20 seats to the party from the state’s electoral share. Congress set to win 5 here.
17 (won 19 in 2009) seats from Karnataka’s 28 could go BJP’s way as well while 8 seats likely to be won by Congress.
In Kerala, CPM is forecast to win 7 seats, while Congress could add 6 seats to its kitty out of the 20. Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK is seen winning 19 seats out of 39 in Tamil Nadu. DMK gets 13.
Congress may win only 2 seats in Tamil Nadu.
Out of the 14 seats in Assam, 8 seats could be captured by the Congress.
Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is set to win 29 (won 19 seats in 2009) seats outs of 42, CPM could hold on to 7 here while Congress may latch on to 2 in West Bengal.
BJD is set to win 16 out of 21 seats in Orissa, 3 go to the BJP.
NDA’s vote share percentage is seen at 31% while UPA’s is projected at 24%. Left has 5% while Others take around 40% overall.
The ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll based on national representative sample of 29,000 randomly selected respondents across the country in the month of February.
Figure below displays the break-up of seats:
UPA 92: East 21 (142) North 23 (151), South 26 (134), West 22 (116)
NDA 236: East 39 (142), North 88 (151), South 21 (134), West 88 (116)
Left 29: East 14 (142), North 9 (151), South 15 (134), West 0 (116)
Others 186: East 68 (142), North 40 (151), South 72 (134), West 6 (116)
Source: ABPLive.in
The Opinion Poll has found that NDA is set to win 236 seats in the 543-seat parliament while the incumbent UPA-II government is projected to win mere 92 seats.
According to the projection, BJP alone will get 217 (won 116 seats in 2009) seats out of a total 543 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress is projected to get only 73 (won 206 seats in 2009) seats--133 less than 2009 seat position in the Lower House.
The non-UPA and non-NDA parties seem to be holding a key share of national vote bank, reveals the survey. Left parties are likely to gather 29 seats while Others in the political fray could likely bag 186 seats.
The poll forecast that the BJP would win the lion's share of the vote in many of the big states that typically decide the fate of the polls.
BJP is forecast to win 40 (won 11 in 2009) of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state in the country.
It is also predicted to emerge as the largest party in Bihar, with 21 (won 12 seats in 2009) of the state's 40 seats, and to win 19 (won 9 in 2009) of the 48 seats in Maharashtra. 7 seats go to Congress while NCP gets 7 seats. Shiv Sena gets 9 (won 11 in 2009) here.
BJP could bag 26 of Madhya Pradesh’s 29 seats and 22 out 26 seats from PM nominee Narendra Modi’s home turf Gujarat.
Rajasthan again where BJP is in power could give 20 seats to the party from the state’s electoral share. Congress set to win 5 here.
17 (won 19 in 2009) seats from Karnataka’s 28 could go BJP’s way as well while 8 seats likely to be won by Congress.
In Kerala, CPM is forecast to win 7 seats, while Congress could add 6 seats to its kitty out of the 20. Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK is seen winning 19 seats out of 39 in Tamil Nadu. DMK gets 13.
Congress may win only 2 seats in Tamil Nadu.
Out of the 14 seats in Assam, 8 seats could be captured by the Congress.
Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is set to win 29 (won 19 seats in 2009) seats outs of 42, CPM could hold on to 7 here while Congress may latch on to 2 in West Bengal.
BJD is set to win 16 out of 21 seats in Orissa, 3 go to the BJP.
NDA’s vote share percentage is seen at 31% while UPA’s is projected at 24%. Left has 5% while Others take around 40% overall.
The ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll based on national representative sample of 29,000 randomly selected respondents across the country in the month of February.
Figure below displays the break-up of seats:
UPA 92: East 21 (142) North 23 (151), South 26 (134), West 22 (116)
NDA 236: East 39 (142), North 88 (151), South 21 (134), West 88 (116)
Left 29: East 14 (142), North 9 (151), South 15 (134), West 0 (116)
Others 186: East 68 (142), North 40 (151), South 72 (134), West 6 (116)
Source: ABPLive.in
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