The general elections in Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, might not throw as many surprises as expected. The India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation opinion poll predicts that the Bharatiya Janata Party will top the tally in the state with 30 seats and not as many as the party expects. In the rest of the North, the scene is bleak for the Congress too.
The survey says that the Modi phenomenon is working across UP and the party's vote share will go up by almost 10 per cent. If the party can increase vote share further, the BJP can sweep the state. The Modi phenomenon has made inroads into rural areas as well. And if the Gujarat chief minister decides to contest from UP, the party could win even more seats.
However, for the time being, the saffron party's dream of benefiting from a polarised Hindu vote remains distant as regional satraps rule the roost with a firm grip of their traditional vote banks.
The Samajwadi Party is likely to win 20 seats, which is a loss of three seats compared to its 2009 tally of 23. Mayawati-led Bahujan Samajwadi Party which hopes to benefit from a dithering minority vote, at the expense of the SP, is projected to end up with 24 seats with a gain of just four seats over its 2009 position.
The Congress, however, is likely to emerge as the clear loser as the survey shows it might have to make do with just four seats, a fall of 17 seats from its 2009 tally of 21. Despite the high-voltage campaign of AAP's Kumar Vishwas, Rahul Gandhi currently faces no danger in Amethi.
The other clear loser is the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal which might see its Jat vote bank receding due to the Muzaffarnagar riots which polarised Hindu votes in the region. The poll projects just one seat for RLD, a loss of four from its 2009 tally.
In Madhya Pradesh, the poll predicts results no different from the recently-concluded Assembly elections. Except for strongholds of Congress stalwarts like Kamal Nath, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijaya Singh, the Congress fortunes plummet across the state.
With the gap in the vote share of the BJP and the Congress widening significantly, Madhya Pradesh could well work out as the next Gujarat and become a saffron bastion.
Further, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been able to tap into the Dalit vote bank of the Congress and the BSP and giving the BJP bigger margins.
The poll projects BJP winning 22 of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in the state. This is an increase of six seats from its earlier tally of 16.
The Congress falls to just 6 seats from its earlier 12.
While there is no wave of Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party in UP and MP, it is a clear winner in Delhi. The poll projects it might win five of seven Lok Sabha seats here with the BJP bagging the remaining two. According to the poll, the Congress might not open its account here.
Senior leaders like Kapil Sibal and Ajay Maken are expected to lose. The only seat where the Congress is still in contest is East Delhi, the seat held by Sandeep Dikshit, the son of former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit.
In Haryana, the BJP is likely to win 6 seats with Congress, AAP, INLD and HJC sharing one each. However, in Haryana, AAP is set to register impressive gains. While AAP is expected to pick up 21 per cent of votes here, it is currently bagging only one seat. The party has strong chances of winning Gurgaon and Chandigarh (Union Territory) seats.
In Punjab, the poll predicts an even battle with the Congress likely to win 6 seats while the Shiromani Akali Dal (5) and BJP (2) combine winning seven. However, AAP is also seen as making inroads here. If Manpreet Singh Badal joins hands with AAP, then in the long term the alliance has the potential of becoming a significant player in the state.
In Himachal Pradesh, the corruption charges levelled against Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh are expected to hurt the party's prospects badly in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP is expected to bag 3 of the 4 LS seats in the state.
In Uttarakhand, the BJP is projected to win four seats while Congress may win one. In Jammu and Kashmir, BJP is likely to win both its traditional Jammu seats. In the Valley, the PDP is projected to win two while both NC and Congress end up with one each.
Source: IndiaToday
The survey says that the Modi phenomenon is working across UP and the party's vote share will go up by almost 10 per cent. If the party can increase vote share further, the BJP can sweep the state. The Modi phenomenon has made inroads into rural areas as well. And if the Gujarat chief minister decides to contest from UP, the party could win even more seats.
However, for the time being, the saffron party's dream of benefiting from a polarised Hindu vote remains distant as regional satraps rule the roost with a firm grip of their traditional vote banks.
The Samajwadi Party is likely to win 20 seats, which is a loss of three seats compared to its 2009 tally of 23. Mayawati-led Bahujan Samajwadi Party which hopes to benefit from a dithering minority vote, at the expense of the SP, is projected to end up with 24 seats with a gain of just four seats over its 2009 position.
The Congress, however, is likely to emerge as the clear loser as the survey shows it might have to make do with just four seats, a fall of 17 seats from its 2009 tally of 21. Despite the high-voltage campaign of AAP's Kumar Vishwas, Rahul Gandhi currently faces no danger in Amethi.
The other clear loser is the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal which might see its Jat vote bank receding due to the Muzaffarnagar riots which polarised Hindu votes in the region. The poll projects just one seat for RLD, a loss of four from its 2009 tally.
In Madhya Pradesh, the poll predicts results no different from the recently-concluded Assembly elections. Except for strongholds of Congress stalwarts like Kamal Nath, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijaya Singh, the Congress fortunes plummet across the state.
With the gap in the vote share of the BJP and the Congress widening significantly, Madhya Pradesh could well work out as the next Gujarat and become a saffron bastion.
Further, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been able to tap into the Dalit vote bank of the Congress and the BSP and giving the BJP bigger margins.
The poll projects BJP winning 22 of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in the state. This is an increase of six seats from its earlier tally of 16.
The Congress falls to just 6 seats from its earlier 12.
While there is no wave of Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party in UP and MP, it is a clear winner in Delhi. The poll projects it might win five of seven Lok Sabha seats here with the BJP bagging the remaining two. According to the poll, the Congress might not open its account here.
Senior leaders like Kapil Sibal and Ajay Maken are expected to lose. The only seat where the Congress is still in contest is East Delhi, the seat held by Sandeep Dikshit, the son of former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit.
In Haryana, the BJP is likely to win 6 seats with Congress, AAP, INLD and HJC sharing one each. However, in Haryana, AAP is set to register impressive gains. While AAP is expected to pick up 21 per cent of votes here, it is currently bagging only one seat. The party has strong chances of winning Gurgaon and Chandigarh (Union Territory) seats.
In Punjab, the poll predicts an even battle with the Congress likely to win 6 seats while the Shiromani Akali Dal (5) and BJP (2) combine winning seven. However, AAP is also seen as making inroads here. If Manpreet Singh Badal joins hands with AAP, then in the long term the alliance has the potential of becoming a significant player in the state.
In Himachal Pradesh, the corruption charges levelled against Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh are expected to hurt the party's prospects badly in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP is expected to bag 3 of the 4 LS seats in the state.
In Uttarakhand, the BJP is projected to win four seats while Congress may win one. In Jammu and Kashmir, BJP is likely to win both its traditional Jammu seats. In the Valley, the PDP is projected to win two while both NC and Congress end up with one each.
Source: IndiaToday
No Name of State Member NDA
ReplyDelete1 Andhra Pradesh 42 12
2 Arunachal Pradesh 2
3 Assam 14 4
4 Bihar 40 20
5 Chhattisgarh 11 8
6 Goa 2 2
7 Gujarat 26 22
8 Haryana 10 6
9 Himachal Pradesh 4 2
10 Jammu and Kashmir 6 2
11 Jharkhand 14 8
12 Karnataka 28 15
13 Kerala 20
14 Madhya Pradesh 29 24
15 Maharashtra 48 30
16 Manipur 2
17 Meghalaya 2
18 Mizoram 1
19 Nagaland 1
20 Odisha 21 5
21 Punjab 13 8
22 Rajasthan 25 21
23 Sikkim 1
24 Tamil Nadu 39 4
25 Tripura 2
26 Uttar Pradesh 80 45
27 Uttarakhand 5 3
28 West Bengal 42 2
29 Andaman and Nicobar 1
30 Chandigarh 1 1
31 Dadra and Nagar Haveli 1 1
32 Daman and Diu 1 1
33 Delhi 7 4
34 Lakshadweep 1
35 Puducherry 1
Total 543 250
ZERO FROM ODISHA, WEST BENGAL, AP, TN. KERALA, PONDICHURY
Deleteyou are totally mistaken Mr. Shoaib, In AP BJP-TDP Alliance will surely win 18-20 Seats out of 42 (This is least i am guessing) but it would be more....
DeleteBengal, Odisha, TN are really favourable and i do not know about Kerala and Pondichery.
Cheers
Yes I can say Min 15 and Max 25
Deletehere is logic There is maximum seats goes to NDA and even if TRS get in Telangana who will also support NAMO with the help of Kishan Reddy
DeletebJP IS LIKELY TO GAIN MORE NOW AS THE MODI IMPACT IS ON THE MOUNT IN THE HEART OF MASSES
ReplyDeleteONLY AN OASIS
Delete