Even though the BJP is the most preferred in the Lok Sabha polls, voters still back the JDU in the event of Assembly elections.
The break-up with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in June 2013 seems to have gone against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his party the Janata Dal (United). With the Narendra Modi wave sweeping the state, the JD(U) is likely to come a distant second to the BJP if Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014 as per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.
Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats and the main opposition BJP is expected win 16-24 seats while JD(U) may bag just 7-13 seats. Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is likely to improve its tally by winning 6-10 seats. Congress is projected to win 0-4 seats as per the seat projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar.
The Modi wave is clearly helping the BJP in the state and the party is likely to get 39 per cent of the votes. In 2009, it was just 14 per cent. The ruling JD(U) is likely to get just 20 per cent votes down from 24 per cent in 2009. The RJD is likely to get 15 per cent, the Congress 11 per cent, LJP 2 per cent, the AAP 3 per cent and others are likely to get 10 per cent of the votes.
While 26 per cent voters hold the JD(U) responsible for the break-up with the BJP, 20 voters feel that the BJP is more responsible with 39 per cent feeling that both are equally responsible for the split.
One more interesting thing is the opinion on possible alliances this time. JD(U)-BJP and Congress-RJD are seen as natural partners by their respective voters. A possible alliance between JD(U)-Congress has also got a fairly high support among their respective voters.
While RJD-Congress alliance has got 26 per cent support, JD(U)-Congress alliance has got 25 per cent support. But, JD(U)-BJP alliance is favoured by a huge 43 per cent of the voters. The sample size for Bihar is 1317.
As usual Bihar has a high level of political awareness. Eight out of 10 respondents have replied that they have heard about bomb blasts during Narendra Modi's rally in Patna while 51 per cent respondents including the Muslims blame Nitish Kumar for the security lapse during the rally. Overall, 45 per cent feel that Modi did the right thing by continuing with his rally even after the bomb blasts.
Nearly half of the respondents feel that Lalu Prasad has got adequate punishment for the fodder scam. Only 19 per cent feel that the punishment was too harsh while 46 per cent feel that it is adequate.
Even though the BJP is the most preferred party in the Lok Sabha polls, voters still back the JD(U) in the event of Assembly elections. While 38 per cent back the JD(U) in the Assembly polls, 23 per cent voters each back the RJD and the BJP respectively.
The JD(U) government's performance still gets a very positive rating with 59 per cent saying that it is doing very well. Nitish Kumar's performance as the Chief Minister is rated even better than the performance of his government. He has the backing of 63 per cent voters.
On the other hand, the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre is highly unpopular in Bihar. A massive 77 per cent respondents say that they are unhappy with the UPA. The UPA is not only extremely unpopular in Bihar, even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is disliked by 70 per cent of respondents.
Modi Leads in PM Race:
Narendra Modi is leading the PM race with 39 per cent votes in the state. Nitish Kumar has got the backing of just 15 per cent respondents while Rahul Gandhi has got 9 per cent and Lalu Prasad 11 per cent support. AAP's Arvind Kejriwal has got just 3 per cent backing.
Source: IBN Live
The break-up with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in June 2013 seems to have gone against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his party the Janata Dal (United). With the Narendra Modi wave sweeping the state, the JD(U) is likely to come a distant second to the BJP if Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014 as per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.
Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats and the main opposition BJP is expected win 16-24 seats while JD(U) may bag just 7-13 seats. Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is likely to improve its tally by winning 6-10 seats. Congress is projected to win 0-4 seats as per the seat projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar.
The Modi wave is clearly helping the BJP in the state and the party is likely to get 39 per cent of the votes. In 2009, it was just 14 per cent. The ruling JD(U) is likely to get just 20 per cent votes down from 24 per cent in 2009. The RJD is likely to get 15 per cent, the Congress 11 per cent, LJP 2 per cent, the AAP 3 per cent and others are likely to get 10 per cent of the votes.
While 26 per cent voters hold the JD(U) responsible for the break-up with the BJP, 20 voters feel that the BJP is more responsible with 39 per cent feeling that both are equally responsible for the split.
One more interesting thing is the opinion on possible alliances this time. JD(U)-BJP and Congress-RJD are seen as natural partners by their respective voters. A possible alliance between JD(U)-Congress has also got a fairly high support among their respective voters.
While RJD-Congress alliance has got 26 per cent support, JD(U)-Congress alliance has got 25 per cent support. But, JD(U)-BJP alliance is favoured by a huge 43 per cent of the voters. The sample size for Bihar is 1317.
As usual Bihar has a high level of political awareness. Eight out of 10 respondents have replied that they have heard about bomb blasts during Narendra Modi's rally in Patna while 51 per cent respondents including the Muslims blame Nitish Kumar for the security lapse during the rally. Overall, 45 per cent feel that Modi did the right thing by continuing with his rally even after the bomb blasts.
Nearly half of the respondents feel that Lalu Prasad has got adequate punishment for the fodder scam. Only 19 per cent feel that the punishment was too harsh while 46 per cent feel that it is adequate.
Even though the BJP is the most preferred party in the Lok Sabha polls, voters still back the JD(U) in the event of Assembly elections. While 38 per cent back the JD(U) in the Assembly polls, 23 per cent voters each back the RJD and the BJP respectively.
The JD(U) government's performance still gets a very positive rating with 59 per cent saying that it is doing very well. Nitish Kumar's performance as the Chief Minister is rated even better than the performance of his government. He has the backing of 63 per cent voters.
On the other hand, the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre is highly unpopular in Bihar. A massive 77 per cent respondents say that they are unhappy with the UPA. The UPA is not only extremely unpopular in Bihar, even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is disliked by 70 per cent of respondents.
Modi Leads in PM Race:
Narendra Modi is leading the PM race with 39 per cent votes in the state. Nitish Kumar has got the backing of just 15 per cent respondents while Rahul Gandhi has got 9 per cent and Lalu Prasad 11 per cent support. AAP's Arvind Kejriwal has got just 3 per cent backing.
Source: IBN Live
Unless constituency wise break up is what is shown, if BJP has 40% votes as against 20% for JDU & 15% for RJD, in a 4 cornered or even 3 cornered contest, BJP will be sweeping Bihar, except one seat here or there.
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