BJP All Set to Rout Congress in Delhi: Opinion Polls

An opinion poll survey conducted by India Today group in association with ORG, has predicted that BJP would get 40 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly in the December 4 election. The survey predicts a massive defeat for the ruling Congress which would be confined to mere 18 seats, incurring a loss of 25 seats this time. Aam Aadami Party may get 10 seats.

According to the opinion poll, the main Opposition BJP is predicted to get 37 per cent of the vote share whereas, the Congress is likely to get the support of mere 29 per cent electorate. The new entrant Aam Aadami Party is predicted to get 21 per cent vote in December 4 election.

However, another poll survey conducted by ABP News-Dainik Bhaskar-Nielsen predicts that BJP would emerge as the single largest party in the State Assembly.

This survey gives 25 seats to the ruling Congress, while AAP is predicted to get 10 seats.

The most interesting aspect of the ABP News-Dainik Bhaskar-Nielsen survey is the neck and neck contest among BJP, Congress and AAP in 15 to 20 constituencies of Delhi. The survey says that by the time of voting, which is due on December 4, if the BJP gets a two per cent additional swing in these constituencies, it will win 40 seats, getting a clear majority.

On the contrary, if the Congress gets the two per cent edge on these seats, it will still fall short of majority as it will get mere 34 seats.

The survey tells that the main Opposition Party BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate Harsh Vardhan is ahead of all other prominent contenders for the top job.

Thirty four percent people chose to go for Harsh Vardhan, 33 per cent for AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal. Present Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit was backed by just 26 per cent people.

Replying to questions asked during the opinion poll, 56 per cent people said that BJP’s decision to appoint Harsh Vardhan as its Chief Ministerial candidate gives an edge to the main Opposition party over its rivals.

As far as the prominent poll issues are concerned, 74 per cent people consider the inflation as the top election issue in Delhi. Seven per cent people consider sewer, 4 per cent consider water and 5 per cent choose electricity as the main poll issue.

Political analysts say that Narendra Modi factor is greatly working in favour of the BJP in the national capital.

India Today-ORG Opinion Poll
BJP	40
Congress	18
AAP	10
Others	2

ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll
BJP	32
Congress	25
AAP	10
Others	3

Source: NitiCentral.com

The Indian Republic Opinion Poll Rankings-Find which Poll to Trust for Election Season

Every important election in India sees political parties express opinions about opinion polls. Every now and then there is a call to ban them or at the very least regulate them. In a democracy, one of the most treasured virtues is the freedom to express opinions and hence we at The Indian Republic feel that banning them will go against the very spirit of our constitution. We do however believe that it is important for people to know which polls are more accurate. Hence, today we present India’s first ever opinion poll rankings. It is a market determined method of regulation vs. one that may be imposed by the state.

The Indian Republic team has analysed predictions and actual results for 2009 General elections and the major state elections since 2011 for the Opinion Poll Ranking – these states include Punjab, Gujarat, UP, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh and Assam. Eyeing the top spot are four contenders – CVoter, AC Nielsen, CSDS and ORG. Post collation of data from publicly available sources The Indian Republic developed a multi-criterion decision making algorithm to assign a final score to each of them (details below) – While opinion polls claim an error margin of between 3-5% we found several instances where the error margins were over 10%. Thus, the model we have developed ranks the polls relative to each other where the focus is on which poll result is closest to the final results. And the results are as follows:

The winner of the Opinion Poll Ranking is CSDS with a comfortable margin. CVoter comes second while ORG and AC Nielsen are third and fourth. It is also important to note media companies that commonly release the results of these surveys – CSDS polls are released by CNN IBN, CVoter polls are released by Times Now, ORG polls are released by Headlines Today-Aaj Tak, AC Nielsen polls are released by Star (now ABP). It is often said that media agencies biases are reflected in opinion poll results.

This equation becomes even more interesting when ownership of media houses changes. For example after a star performance in 2009 General elections, AC Nielsen polls were lagging until recently – once the ownership transferred from Star to ABP it scored in our model in the recent Karnataka elections.

So what differentiates the results of these polls? – methodology is the most important when it comes to surveys. This includes factors like whether a) the sample is random, representative, stratified random etc. b) what is the sample size c) was the survey conducted over the phone or in a face-to-face interaction d) when were the polls conducted etc. CSDS holds the reputation of having the right mix wherein the sample is stratified random which ensures that the sample is both representative and random, it has relatively large sample sizes and is done in a face-to-face interview. While CVoter also follows some of the best industry practices, its surveys are often based on telephonic interviews that are spread over a large period of time.

The scoring matrix gives 0.5 pts if the poll estimate is closest to the party with the highest number of seats, 0.33 if it is closest to the party with the second highest number of seats and 0.167 if it is closest to the party/others with the third highest number seats. These weights have been determined by a multi-criteria decision making model using pair wise ranking of alternatives. (Other agencies which wish to be ranked using our algorithm can contact us and we will include them in future rankings)

Score Break-up:

Before having a look at what the polls are predicting for upcoming elections let us have a look at the predictions and the actual results over the past several elections for each of the polls.

So what do these surveys predict for the upcoming 2013 state-elections of Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh:

Source: TheIndianRepublic.com

BJP's PM Candidate Modi Shortlisted by Time for 'Person of the Year’

New Delhi: BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is among Time magazine's shortlisted candidates for its 'Person of the Year' title and has emerged as an early favourite among the readers in an online poll.

Time has shortlisted 42 global leaders, entrepreneurs and celebrities for its 'Person of the Year 2013' and will announce the winner next month.

Other candidates in fray are Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, US President Barack Obama, Pakistani teenage education activist Malala Yousafzai, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and even the new heir to the British throne Prince George.

On Modi, Time said "the controversial Hindu nationalist and Chief Minister of the Indian state of Gujarat is the most likely candidate to unseat India’s ruling Congress party in the world’s largest democracy."

Modi is the only Indian in the shortlist.

While Time's editors will choose the winner, it has asked readers to cast their votes for the person they think "most influenced the news this year for better or worse".

So far Modi has got over 2650 votes and with about 25 percent, is leading the online readers' poll. Modi is way ahead with Snowden, who garnered the second highest number of votes at about 7 percent as on November 20.

Obama, who has twice been named 'Person of the Year', is in the shortlist with the US magazine saying the President's "second term started with a slew of self-inflicted wounds and unfulfilled promise(s), from an IRS scandal and stalled immigration reform to the bungled Obamacare launch". Syrian President Bashar Assad is also among the contenders.

Among the other candidates are New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Twitter CEO Dick Costolo, J P Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Pope Francis, Oscar winner Angelina Jolie.

International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde, Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer, Germany's re-elected Chancellor Angela Merkel, Russian President Vladimir Putin are other contenders.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Chinese President Xi Jinping are also among those shortlisted.

Chechen brothers Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the suspects in the Boston Marathon terror bombings, are in the shortlist too.

Source: ZeeNews

Women's Safety Should be THE Issue of 2014 Polls in India

[We say elections nowadays are fought without issues. Is it true? Six months before the next Lok Sabha polls which many are predicting to be a sort of an unprecedented battle, it is not that India has little or no issue to fight over but what is disappointing is that it is fighting over issues that are not primary.]

Who should be the PM is a secondary issue?

There is a huge enthusiasm across the nation on who should become the next prime minister and how a new government should teach the Pakistanis or the Chinese for violating the borders. The challenger is repeating the corruption that those in power has allegedly indulged in over the ages while the defender is re-emphasising the need of the right to eat of the poor.

Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi should speak on women's safety.

The two main faces of the competing parties, the Congress and the BJP, are heard of saying sharp but repetitive words, aimed at each other. Strangely, none is heard of speaking much about the most burning issue in the country at the moment and that is: safety of women.

Yes, we all know that the coal files shouldn't have been stolen, the poor should be fully fed, the farmer shouldn't keep staring at the flying airplane, terrorism should be wiped out, development should take place, the youth should be empowered... but shouldn't be the womenfolk of this country be the safe before anything else falls in place? Why neither Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi or for the matter any other political leader of this country is putting a firm emphasis on this issue? Like the Aam Aadmi Party which has been formed just to protest corruption, why isn't there still a political party which will only fight for women's safety?

Women's safety is a major challenge in a changing India, but how many are thinking of it?

Issues like communalism, secularism or Mandir-Mandal politics is outdated now. As a modern socio-economy which is yet to take a complete shape, India today is facing threats and problems and the consequence of which is felt the most by the women. Yet, no politician is seen speaking about the issue spontaneously and vowing to improve the situation.

Women's safety isn't just a matter to corner the govt, it requires consistent backing

Women are being sexually assaulted at the workplace, on the streets, at home and we are just depending on law to take care of the problem. why isn't the leadership, across the political spectrum, taking care of this irrespective of the political colour? We heard Modi and Arvind Kejriwal speaking on the issue a couple of times but that seemed to be more an effort to corner the ruling Congress in Delhi and not a uniform stand to deal with the menace across the nation.

It doesn't really matter who becomes the prime minister, Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi, if the country continues to fail to save its women's modesty after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It would be a far more hopeful scenario if a Modi and Rahul join hand to fight the terrorism against women across the society. But will that happen ever?

Source: OneIndia

CPI(M) to Contest Mandi-Shimla Seats in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

Shimla: Taking a lead from other major parties the Communist Party of India-Marxist yesterday announced that it would fight two out of four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh for the 2014 parliament elections.

The State Secretariat which met in Mandi disclosed that the party has decided to field Khushal Bhardwaj, the Vice President of Himachal Kisan Sabha and earlier a very prominent student leader of Himachal Pradesh University from the Mandi parliamentary seat and Jagat Ram, President of State CITU from the Shimla parliamentary constituency.

The party had earlier fought Vidhan Sabha elections from majority assembly segments from these two constituencies. There is a considerable improvement in the strength of cadres and growth in the party in these constituencies, said Dr Onkar Shad, senior party leader.

The CPI-M is leaving the other two seats of Kangra and Hamirpur to the CPI or other Lok Morcha parties, he said.

The left party while claiming to become an alternative to the Congress and BJP in the hill State has termed the 10 months period of the incumbent Congress government as dismal and absolutely in the footsteps of its previous predecessor which was following and implementing the ruinous neo-liberal path of development in the State.

The Congress like the BJP is dismantling the health sector in a planned manner and outsourcing the majority services to the private companies in the bulk of State run hospitals.

The entire laboratory tests so far conducted in these hospitals are now being given to the Ranbaxy, a private company. The State would loose a revenue of around Rs 10 crore by outsourcing the hospital tests to the private players, said the CPI-M. This major decision has not been taken in the cabinet and was solely decided by the health department, alleged the party.

It has also questioned the government’s role in destroying the once efficient public distribution system in the State. There is acute shortage of ration in all government depots and the public is reeling under extreme price rise. The incumbent government is contemplating to bring some foreign company in the purchase and distribution of ration in the State.

The party also strongly raised the issue of unnecessary intervention by the Virbhadra government in the working and functioning of trade unions and workmen associations.

Under the pressure from big corporate groups, the government is dithering from implementing any grants and required wages to the working class.

It is not even allowing the unions to get registered in companies like “Catch Spices” and “Jaypee Cements”, alleged the CPI-M while promising to raise the peoples’ issues during the run up for the coming elections.

Source: Hill Post

Investors Inclined Towards a BJP Win in 2014 Election: CLSA

[The brokerage listed a wave in favour of Narendra Modi as one of the probable reasons for BJP winning 202 seats in the 2014 Elections]

New Delhi: Opinion polls may be unreliable, but the markets favour the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to win next year’s general elections, Hong Kong-based securities house CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said on Monday.

“It is clear that the market favours one outcome over another. It is their right to do that,” Christopher Wood, equity strategist at CLSA, told reporters at the CLSA India Forum in New Delhi.

The brokerage, in a presentation, also projected the state-wise performance of BJP and the probable reasons for it securing 202 seats in the 2014 election: a wave in favour of the party’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi; the appeal of Modi to urban voters; anti-incumbency; polarization; and the strong performance of BJP state governments.

No such scenario was envisaged for the Congress.

CLSA’s view is that India’s “six-month story” is uncertain, but the securities house is optimistic about the country’s “two-year story”.

Among the negatives, CLSA listed fiscal pressure, a weak currency, slowing growth in consumption, political uncertainty and a possible downside to 2014-15 corporate earnings. Among the positives it listed an “uptick” in the investment cycle in 12-18 months, the direct benefits transfer scheme that it called a “bold new reform”, the superior performance of the Indian IT sector, and the fact that banks are becoming aggressive about recovering their dues.

But the securities house’s most controversial analysis is likely to be what it called its “BJP 2014 Blue Sky” (projection). CLSA India Ltd’s executive director Mahesh Nandurkar explained the rationale behind providing such a projection and said it was because of “a lot of investor queries”.

“I haven’t seen this kind of interest in Indian politics from global investors,” he said.

The Congress has been critical of such analyses in the backdrop of a 7 November report by financial services firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc. which stated that an upgrade in India’s investment prospects was possible if a coalition led by BJP comes to power, and may fuel investment demand, particularly in infrastructure.

In response to the Congress party’s reaction, Wood said, “That happens all over the world. We have no issue with that.” CLSA’s presentation dovetails with assembly elections in four states—Delhi, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh—that are seen as a direct contest between the Congress and BJP.

“I think banks like Goldman Sachs should stay focused only on doing what they claim to specialize in,” trade minister Anand Sharma was cited as saying in The Economic Times on 8 November.

“Goldman’s latest report on Indian economy and its eagerness to push the case of a particular political leader and his party exposes two things—Goldman is parading its ignorance about the basic facts of Indian economy; and it also exposes its eagerness to mess around with India’s domestic politics. It only makes Goldman’s credibility and motives highly suspect,” he said.

The reference to a particular political leader was to Modi, the Gujarat chief minister who is spearheading the BJP campaign in the state elections after being anointed as the party’s prime ministerial candidate in the next general elections.

“Rather than appreciating the message, they are going after the messenger,” Rajeev Malik, senior economist at CLSA Singapore Pte. Ltd.

Some opinion polls have projected BJP under Modi as the front runner in next year’s general election, but Wood cited a history of such polls going wrong in predicting electoral results.

“Opinion polls represent an urban electorate rather than a rural one. From the sentiment stand point, opinion polls are important, but from the fundamental standpoint it is the investment cycle (that is important to the markets),” he said.

India has witnessed a debate on opinion polls, with the Election Commission having written to the ministry of law and justice for a ban on the publication of such surveys from the date of notification of elections.

India’s economic growth slowed to 5% in the year ended 31 March, the slowest pace in 10 years, and is forecast by some economists and international agencies to slow further in the current fiscal year. Economists have blamed the stalling of economic reforms during much of the UPA government’s second term in office for the slower pace of growth. And many investors have decided they are better off waiting to see who comes to power in next year’s general election rather than taking an investment decision now.

“The tone and agenda will be set up by the next government,” Malik said. “The political will is not there. It is an inefficiently run economy and any kind of incremental improvement will have a constructive role.”

Indeed, nothing is happening because corruption had become the standard way of getting things done, explained Wood. And everything has come to a standstill in the absence of any other way of getting things done. The ruling UPA government has been roiled by several corruption scandals related to irregularities in the allotment of spectrum, coal mines, and organizing the Commonwealth Games.

Source: LiveMint.com

Narendra Modi the Target-Pak ISI Turns to Dawood Ibrahim for Help

Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has turned to its old confidant Dawood Ibrahim seeking his aid to attack the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, if the central intelligence agencies are to be believed. This has been revealed in a secret note of the intelligence agencies on Modi's threat perception.

The Gujarat chief minister is facing threats from various terror outfits also.

The fresh intelligence gathered by central intelligence agencies reveals that the ISI is taking the underworld don's assistance to target Modi. The intelligence note prepared on the threat to Modi has also mentioned about the ISI-Dawood nexus.

"As per an input, Dawood Ibrahim during a meeting with senior ISI functionaries was tasked to restart activities in India and also target Shri Narendra Modi," the note says.

Sources say the note was prepared after the attack on Modi's rally in Patna on October 27. As many as eight people were killed in the eight explosions occurred in Patna during Modi rally. It is suspected that terror outfit Indian Mujahideen was responsible for the attack.

The intelligence note also reveals that Modi faces a risk not just within India but also from other countries. Other than Pakistan's ISI, terror operatives in Saudi Arabia are also targeting Modi.

"Islamic fundamentalists based in Saudi Arabia are planning attack Modi," the note says.

According to the inputs gathered by intelligence agencies, a terror operative - Shahid alias Bilal - has informed an unidentified associate in Saudi Arabia that a suicide attack would be a better option as against a remotecontrolled Improvised Explosive Device (IED) to attack Modi, says the note.

Another revelation made by in the note is about the possibility of some Indian security officials turning rouge and helping terror groups to attack Modi. The note states that Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT) operatives have recruited some security officials to allow free access to them.

According to intelligence inputs that have been put together by central intelligence agencies, banned outfit Student Islamic Students of India (SIMI) is collaborating with other terror outfits and seeking their help to attack Modi. "SIMI members have been networking with LeT, Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HUJI) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)," the note says.

According to the note, SIMI activists who were arrested recently reveal that the outfit is organising training camps and a suicide wing called Shaheen Force is being organised to target senior political leaders, including Modi who tops the hit list. The note also mentions that Modi faces a threat from Maoists. The intelligence note also mentions the various modus operandi that the terror outfits would resort to.

Use of launchers to target Modi's convoy and ramming an explosives-laden vehicle into his convoy is one of the many options that have been listed. Suicide attacks are another method that terror outfits could use.

Source: IndiaToday

Why BJP is Going to Win 25+ Lok Sabha Seats of Bihar in 2014 Polls?

There are lots of visible and genuine reasons of why in 2014 Lok Sabha Polls, BJP is going to win over 25 seats out of 40 in Bihar:

1. The most prominent factor of winning BJP with record breaking seats of Bihar in 2014 elections is that increasing Narendra Modi acceptance by Bihar people in every section of society very rapidly.

2. There is very mere chances of contesting 2014 general elections by Congress & RJD combined after ordinance chapter raised by Rahul Gandhi to its own party which was favouring Lalu Yadav definitely.

3. There is also very less chances of contesting 2014 Polls by JD(U) with Congress as Narendra Modi already raised JP-and-BJP issue in Hunkar Rally of Patna. Nitish Kumar is trying to play safe in this case as there is a sure chances to swing voters because Bihar is known for its Vote-against-Congress pattern after emergency deployed by Congress & JP-Movement.

4. So, it is clear that there is no chance of pre-poll alliance for 2014 Lok Sabha elections between Congress-RJD or Congress-JD(U). Minority votes will definitely be distributed in Congress-RJD-JD(U). BJP will surely be the gaining party in this case.

5. Recent Bodh-Gaya & Patna like bomb-blasts in last 6-7 months finally decreased popularity of Nitish Kumar in Bihar voters. Also Bihar people are not happy by breaking alliance with BJP by JD(U) without any feasible reasoning.

6. There is a clear national-level wave against Congess-Party due to uncontrolled inflation-unemployment-insecurity (i.e. Mahngai-Berojgari-Ashuraksha) across nation. People want to see a new Government in Center.

Regional-Parties who could do probable alliance with Congress-led-UPA after 2014 polls are also going to lose their vote share nationally.

7. There is a leadership crises in Congress & so called 3rd-front. Central Government has failed on leadership & governance issue. Quick and effective decision making is a big challange for Congress-led-UPA Government.

That is why Narendra Modi finds edge over other national leaders. Good governance record of last 12 years in Gujarat without any communal riots makes Modi far ahead in PM race with other PM prospects.

I hope you like above analysis. Thanks to visitors of this blog and sharing their valuable commnets & views on regular basis.

Source: Blogger-Analysis

Rahul Gandhi a Novice, No Match for Modi: Badal

The oldest serving chief minister in the country, Parkash Singh Badal of Punjab feels that Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi is a "novice" and "no match" to the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

"Rahul Gandhi is a novice in public life and is hardly any match to the NDA's prime ministerial candidate and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi," Badal, who is the patron of the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal, told the media persons in Shahkot town near here on Wednesday.

The Akali Dal is an ally of the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The Punjab chief minister said the country's prime minister should be a "learned personality with varied administrative and public experience". He said Gandhi lacked both.

"It is not possible for such a person to manage the huge responsibility of serving the nation on the top-most post," Badal said.

"On the other hand, Modi has proved his mettle time and again as an able administrator by driving the state of Gujarat on the path of progress," said Badal, who turns 86 next month.

Addressing a public rally in Shahkot, 175 km from here, Badal said neither Congress president Sonia Gandhi nor her son Rahul Gandhi have any sympathy for the common man.

He said India was facing external and internal crises because both these leaders were not even aware about the basic topography of the nation.

"The ignorance of the top leadership of the Congress is proving to be a bane for the entire nation as the faulty policies of the UPA have added to the woes of the common man," Badal said.

Source: IndiaToday.intoday.in

Congress MP Sanjay Singh Shares Dais with BJP Leaders in Rahul Gandhi's Backyard Amethi

Adding fuel to rumours about his growing proximity to the BJP, Congress MP Sanjay Singh on Tuesday shared dais with several leaders of the saffron outfit during his birthday function here, but preferred to play his cards close to his chest.

Asked whether he will join BJP and contest from Amethi Lok Sabha constituency, represented by Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, on its ticket, Singh did not scotch rumours in this regard merely saying the list of candidates would clear the matter.

"I have not quit politics. Everything will be clear once the list of candidates for the Lok Sabha polls are released by political parties," the Congress MP from Sultanpur said.

"Amethi has taught lessons to outsiders from time to time. In Amethi, there are people who does not even belong to Uttar Pradesh. I will take a decision in keeping with whatever is required for Amethi and its people," he said.

"Amethi, Rae Bareli and Sultanpur have shown strength by rejecting outsiders from time to time," he told reporters.

Congress chief Sonia Gandhi represents the Rae Bareli constituency in the Lok Sabha.

Besides local BJP leaders, former BJP MLA Tejbhan Singh shared the platform with Singh during the function at Ram Nagar.

The Congress MP also mentioned the former BJP MLA's name a number of times during his brief speech.

Asked about the presence of BJP leaders at the function, Singh quipped "it is a non-political platform."

Source: DNA

Modi to Drop UP and Fight 2014 Lok Sabha Polls only from Gujarat

Contrary to initial widely reported speculation, Narendra Modi is not likely to contest from Uttar Pradesh.

His proactive campaigning in the state, to which he has made three outings in less than a month (with another scheduled visit to Agra on 21 November) have only fueled rumours that he may stand as a candidate from the state to further boost the BJP’s poll prospects. As a development oriented leader from a backward community with strong Hindutva credentials, Modi would have come to UP as a fiery Mandal, Kamandal and Vikas combo – a hugely attractive electoral proposition in the state.

However BJP sources have told Firstpost that Modi has informed party president Rajnath Singh that he has no desire to contest from UP, preferring instead to head the reorganisation of the party in the state and help with the fine tuning of poll strategy there. He will therefore, most likely contest polls from his home state, Gujarat. He has not decided however which of the 26 seats of the state would be a good constituency for him.

According to the party sources, Modi had told Rajnath Singh that it would not be a wise idea for him (as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate) and Singh (as BJP president) to contest from the same state. Both the leaders are firmly rooted in their respective home states and it is important for the BJP to show diversity in their leadership.

Sources said Modi also does not want to contest from two constituencies, one in Gujarat and the other in Uttar Pradesh.

Even if he were to win both seats, there are several historical examples showing how leaders who won from two constituencies had to face the wrath of people of the constituency they later chose to vacate. The most recent example is that of Akhilesh Yadav who won from two constituencies in the last parliamentary elections. When he vacated Ferozabad and fielded his wife Dimple there instead, she lost to Raj Babbar, the actor turned politician who had revolted from the Samajwadi Party and joined Congress prior to the elections. In Modi’s case the backlash situation may not just be constituency-centric but also state-centric. Something that is completely undesirable for the leader and the party.

The issue is also linked with the Gujarati pride that Modi invokes so often.

He is working to don Sardar Patel’s mantle and a decision to move out of Gujarat to contest elections would hurt that pride and create some popular backlash against him and the BJP. Before the new one word chant of “Modi, Modi, Modi…” became popular, the most popular slogan for party workers had been Dekho Dekho Kaun Aya Gujarat Ka Sher Aya. Modi’s Prime Ministerial claims have been built on governance in Gujarat, and in his recent Bahraich rally he spoke of Gir lions and how lions are known for roars, with barely disguised pride.

Moreover, the leaders who have moved out of their home states to find more convenient electoral abodes in some other states have mostly done so, not because they loved the other state so much but because they couldn’t find a suitable and perpetually safe constituency in their home state. This is not the case with Modi.

But Rhetoric apart, it could be Rajnath Singh who captures Lucknow to lead Modi’s onward march from Gujarat to Delhi.

The BJP leader is under pressure from his sympathisers and party workers to shift from his Ghaziabad parliamentary constituency to either Noida or Lucknow. Both are urban constituencies and have a BJP tilt. Lucknow in particular, is considered quite prestigious for BJP. It was Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s constituency and is currently held by BJP’s Lalji Tandon.

In his rallies in UP, Modi is evoking the sub-nationalism of people of the state and asking why the state has remained backward despite the fact that it has given eight Prime Ministers to the country.

He candidly proclaimed that there would be no stopping him if UP alone decides to make a strong and stable government at the centre. In its previous regimes, the NDA could catapult to power only because, UP gave 55 plus seats to BJP in 1996 and 1998. He does seem to believe in the old saying that the road to Delhi leads from Lucknow. (Vajpayee indeed spelled Lucknow as “Luck Now” at the last BJP convention he attended there).

Source: FirstPost