The CNN IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker poll conducted by the CSDS while suggesting gains for the BJP and losses for the Congress has predicted a badly hung Parliament.
Indeed, over 200 seats could go to political parties, currently not part of either the Congress-led UPA or the BJP-headed NDA.
The CNN-IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), that paints this unsettling picture, says that though both the major electoral formations will get 29 per cent of the vote share each, the NDA will be ahead with anything between 172 and 180 seats and the UPA behind with 149 to 153 - in short, a gap of 22. The BJP’s score, up from 2009, would be in the range 156 to 164; the Congress’s tally, 131 to 139, down from the last general elections.
These figures for the two principal parties, however, need to be viewed with some caution. One, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, the North-east (barring Assam) and the Union territories (barring Delhi) that account for 32 Lok Sabha seats (of which the Congress currently has 16, the BJP seven) were excluded from the CSDS survey that was conducted across 18 major States.
Two, the Congress that recently tied up with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Jharkhand is likely to acquire an electoral partner in Bihar — and perhaps, in West Bengal — closer to the elections. Three, the political picture will alter in Andhra Pradesh if the UPA government announces a separate state of Telengana ahead of May 2014.
Meanwhile, on the leadership question, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, not surprisingly, is the most popular choice for Prime Minister.
But it is the current incumbent, Dr. Manmohan Singh, who emerges as the "most liked" leader in the country, despite falling levels of satisfaction with his government, with price rise, corruption, terrorism - in that order - being the chief grouses of the respondents. Yet of 13 Congress, BJP and regional leaders, Mr. Modi stands at number five in the "most liked"category, behind Dr. Singh, Gandhian activist Anna Hazare, Congress activist Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi.
In a table of potential Prime Ministers, Mr. Modi polls highest with 19 per cent, with Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi second with 12 per cent. But in a direct face-off between the two men — were they to be named as the prime ministerial candidates of their respective parties — the BJP leader would be just two percentage points ahead of his younger Congress adversary, 33 per cent to 31 per cent, with each mopping up the votes of party colleagues.
However, the respondents say that when they will cast their votes, considerations about the party and the local candidate will weigh more than the leader.
Source: TheHindu
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NDA may get more seats than UPA, but parties outside the two fronts will get over 200 seats. The general election, if held now, would throw up a badly hung Parliament with both the United Progressive Alliance and the National Democratic Alliance around a 100 seats short of a simple majority of 273. |
Indeed, over 200 seats could go to political parties, currently not part of either the Congress-led UPA or the BJP-headed NDA.
The CNN-IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), that paints this unsettling picture, says that though both the major electoral formations will get 29 per cent of the vote share each, the NDA will be ahead with anything between 172 and 180 seats and the UPA behind with 149 to 153 - in short, a gap of 22. The BJP’s score, up from 2009, would be in the range 156 to 164; the Congress’s tally, 131 to 139, down from the last general elections.
These figures for the two principal parties, however, need to be viewed with some caution. One, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, the North-east (barring Assam) and the Union territories (barring Delhi) that account for 32 Lok Sabha seats (of which the Congress currently has 16, the BJP seven) were excluded from the CSDS survey that was conducted across 18 major States.
Two, the Congress that recently tied up with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Jharkhand is likely to acquire an electoral partner in Bihar — and perhaps, in West Bengal — closer to the elections. Three, the political picture will alter in Andhra Pradesh if the UPA government announces a separate state of Telengana ahead of May 2014.
Meanwhile, on the leadership question, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, not surprisingly, is the most popular choice for Prime Minister.
But it is the current incumbent, Dr. Manmohan Singh, who emerges as the "most liked" leader in the country, despite falling levels of satisfaction with his government, with price rise, corruption, terrorism - in that order - being the chief grouses of the respondents. Yet of 13 Congress, BJP and regional leaders, Mr. Modi stands at number five in the "most liked"category, behind Dr. Singh, Gandhian activist Anna Hazare, Congress activist Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi.
In a table of potential Prime Ministers, Mr. Modi polls highest with 19 per cent, with Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi second with 12 per cent. But in a direct face-off between the two men — were they to be named as the prime ministerial candidates of their respective parties — the BJP leader would be just two percentage points ahead of his younger Congress adversary, 33 per cent to 31 per cent, with each mopping up the votes of party colleagues.
However, the respondents say that when they will cast their votes, considerations about the party and the local candidate will weigh more than the leader.
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