The BJP seems to be not just sure of the prospects of winning the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but also over-confident of emerging victorious. However, the party seems to be overlooking the several challenges it is facing on the ground.
Ahead of the BJP's National Executive meeting in here on Monday, BJP president Amit Shah, in a tweet, said, "Keep watching, the 2019 (Lok Sabha election) victory would be bigger than the previous one (2014)."
In the same meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is learnt to have asked the party to stop thinking about the forthcoming Lok Sabha election and instead focus on serving and reaching out to the people. He is reported to have told his partymen that the party "should be taken beyond elections" and made an "instrument of mass participation".
These statements betray confidence on the part of the BJP's two top leaders over the performance of the party. But the fact may be that the BJP and the NDA government face several challenges on the ground.
There could be only two reasons why Shah would have presented such a rosy picture of the party for the 2019 general elections - either he is unaware of the challenges the party and the government are facing or it would be to galvanise the party cadre.
As matters stand today, there are two scenarios if the challenges are taken into account - BJP may lose the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or, even if it wins, the victory would not be greater than that in the 2014 general elections.
Here are the challenges before the BJP and the Modi government:
1. JOBS
Rising unemployment is one of the biggest challenges of the Modi government. It is indeed leading to discontentment among the youth. Unemployment may have been one of the significant reasons why the students' wing of the BJP's parent organisation RSS suffered setbacks in the recently-held Delhi University and JNU students' union elections.
Due to loss of job opportunities, the youth appear to have got disenchanted with the Modi government. The widespread support that recent agitations in some reputed educational institutions, including in Benaras Hindu University (BHU), received may have been a manifestation of the growing insecurity among the youth.
The BJP manifesto for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections had criticised the previous Congress-led UPA government stating that the country has been dragged through 10 years of jobless growth. It promised that under the broader economic revival, BJP will accord high priority to job creation and opportunities for entrepreneurship.
Talking about the party's strategy, the manifesto said the government's focus would be on job creation and entrepreneurship, in both rural and urban areas, transforming employment exchanges into career centres, connecting the youth with job opportunities in a transparent and effective manner through the use of technology as well as providing counselling and training.
2. PRICE RISE
Rise in the prices of essential commodities, including petroleum products, was one of the main reasons behind the defeat of the Manmohan Singh. Riding on the sentiments of the voters, the BJP had lashed out at the UPA government on the issue of price rise and promised to take several steps to rein it in.
The BJP, in its manifesto, said: "Runaway food inflation has crippled household budgets and contributed to the overall inflationary trend under the Congress-led UPA's watch. Even worse, the food and nutritional security of millions is threatened.
"However, the Congress-led UPA government has remained insensitive and indifferent to the plight of the people; tying itself into knots with short-term, misdirected steps. The committee of Chief Ministers, headed by Narendra Modi, has already submitted a report on food inflation in 2011. The report was unfortunately not acted upon by the Congress-led UPA Government," it said.
The manifesto further said: "The BJP-led NDA Government's record of holding the prices is a demonstration of our commitment to break the vicious cycle of high inflation and high interest rates."
The party had promised a number of steps to check prices such as putting in place strict measures and special courts to stop hoarding and black marketing, setting up a price stabilisation fund, unbundling FCI operations into procurement, storage and distribution for greater efficiency, leveraging on technology to disseminate real time data, especially to farmers on production, prices, imports, stocks and overall availability; evolving a single 'National Agriculture Market', promote and supporting area specific crops and vegetables linked to food habits of the people.
Despite the elapse of about three-and-a-half years, the NDA government has not fulfilled its promise of reining in price rise. The prices of both food items and petroleum products are sky-rocketing. There is a growing anger against the Modi government for failing to check the prices.
3. GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
The Modi government is facing flak for the dip in the country's GDP growth to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent during April-June as manufacturing slowed ahead of the GST launch amid demonetisation effect. The expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) was 6.1 per cent in the preceding quarter and 7.9 per cent in the same period last fiscal. The previous low of 4.6 per cent was recorded in January-March 2014.
Gross value added (GVA) in the manufacturing sector fell sharply to 1.2 per cent, from 10.7 per cent year on year, as the businesses focussed more on clearing inventories rather than production ahead of the July 1 launch of GST.
A separate set of official data showed that growth of eight core sectors slowed to 2.4 per cent in July due to contraction in output of crude oil, refinery products, fertiliser and cement.
The data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) came in below market expectations, which predicted it to be at least a tad higher than January-March growth figure of 6.1 per cent.
According to the data, there was a slowdown in the agricultural sector, too. GVA in the first quarter was 2.3 per cent compared to 2.5 per cent in the similar period last year.
Economic activities that registered growth of over 7 per cent in the first quarter on an annual basis are trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting, public administration, defence and other services and electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services.
This actual economic situation is a contrast to the picture that had been painted by the BJP before the 2014 lok Sabha elections. Under the sub-head 'Economic revival', the party's election manifesto had said: "When the NDA Government completed its tenure the baton was handed over to the incoming UPA Government with GDP growth nearing double digit in 2004.
"Inflation was under control. Fiscal Deficit and Current Account Deficit were kept within limit and the overall economy was showing robust fundamentals. In contrast, now at the end of Congress-led UPA regime, the GDP growth has plummeted to very low of 4.8 per cent, the inflation and price rise beyond control, the fiscal deficit and current account deficit in the alarm zone, and the manufacturing sector facing a recession."
The present GDP growth of 5.7 per cent is less than a per cent more than what the NDA had inherited from the Manmohan Singh government. It may be an extremely difficult task for the Modi government to exceptionally improve upon the economic condition in about a year's time.
4. GST (Goods & Services Tax)
The benefits of Goods and Services Tax (GST) notwithstanding, the historic economic legislation is putting the common traders, who are generally believed to be BJP supporters, to immense hardship. The traders are generally complaining against the tax rates besides the highly complex and cumbersome documentation process.
The main grievances of the traders are that they are having problems in logging in, getting digital signature approved, migrating to GST Network (GSTN) because of non-validation of PAN (Permanent Account Number) and determining the Harmonised System of Nomenclature (HSN) code and, hence, the tax rates of commodities.
With a significant number of traders, most of them being BJP voters, being unhappy with GST roll out, the ruling party may suffer electorally.
5. SATURATION AND ANTI-INCUMBENCY
The BJP has reached a saturation point in several states winning almost all the seats. The states include Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. Besides, it has hardly any chance to improve its tally in some states, for instance, in the south. With such a prospect, it would be extremely difficult for the BJP to improve upon its 2014 Lok Sabha elections' tally.
Apart from the saturation level, the anti-incumbency, both at the Centre and in the BJP-ruled states, may also have a role to play in limited the performance of the party in 2019.
In view of these factors, the BJP may only hope to only win the next general elections. Performing better than 2014 in the present circumstances may be a far cry.
Source: IndiaToday
Ahead of the BJP's National Executive meeting in here on Monday, BJP president Amit Shah, in a tweet, said, "Keep watching, the 2019 (Lok Sabha election) victory would be bigger than the previous one (2014)."
In the same meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is learnt to have asked the party to stop thinking about the forthcoming Lok Sabha election and instead focus on serving and reaching out to the people. He is reported to have told his partymen that the party "should be taken beyond elections" and made an "instrument of mass participation".
These statements betray confidence on the part of the BJP's two top leaders over the performance of the party. But the fact may be that the BJP and the NDA government face several challenges on the ground.
There could be only two reasons why Shah would have presented such a rosy picture of the party for the 2019 general elections - either he is unaware of the challenges the party and the government are facing or it would be to galvanise the party cadre.
As matters stand today, there are two scenarios if the challenges are taken into account - BJP may lose the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or, even if it wins, the victory would not be greater than that in the 2014 general elections.
Here are the challenges before the BJP and the Modi government:
1. JOBS
Rising unemployment is one of the biggest challenges of the Modi government. It is indeed leading to discontentment among the youth. Unemployment may have been one of the significant reasons why the students' wing of the BJP's parent organisation RSS suffered setbacks in the recently-held Delhi University and JNU students' union elections.
Due to loss of job opportunities, the youth appear to have got disenchanted with the Modi government. The widespread support that recent agitations in some reputed educational institutions, including in Benaras Hindu University (BHU), received may have been a manifestation of the growing insecurity among the youth.
The BJP manifesto for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections had criticised the previous Congress-led UPA government stating that the country has been dragged through 10 years of jobless growth. It promised that under the broader economic revival, BJP will accord high priority to job creation and opportunities for entrepreneurship.
Talking about the party's strategy, the manifesto said the government's focus would be on job creation and entrepreneurship, in both rural and urban areas, transforming employment exchanges into career centres, connecting the youth with job opportunities in a transparent and effective manner through the use of technology as well as providing counselling and training.
2. PRICE RISE
Rise in the prices of essential commodities, including petroleum products, was one of the main reasons behind the defeat of the Manmohan Singh. Riding on the sentiments of the voters, the BJP had lashed out at the UPA government on the issue of price rise and promised to take several steps to rein it in.
The BJP, in its manifesto, said: "Runaway food inflation has crippled household budgets and contributed to the overall inflationary trend under the Congress-led UPA's watch. Even worse, the food and nutritional security of millions is threatened.
"However, the Congress-led UPA government has remained insensitive and indifferent to the plight of the people; tying itself into knots with short-term, misdirected steps. The committee of Chief Ministers, headed by Narendra Modi, has already submitted a report on food inflation in 2011. The report was unfortunately not acted upon by the Congress-led UPA Government," it said.
The manifesto further said: "The BJP-led NDA Government's record of holding the prices is a demonstration of our commitment to break the vicious cycle of high inflation and high interest rates."
The party had promised a number of steps to check prices such as putting in place strict measures and special courts to stop hoarding and black marketing, setting up a price stabilisation fund, unbundling FCI operations into procurement, storage and distribution for greater efficiency, leveraging on technology to disseminate real time data, especially to farmers on production, prices, imports, stocks and overall availability; evolving a single 'National Agriculture Market', promote and supporting area specific crops and vegetables linked to food habits of the people.
Despite the elapse of about three-and-a-half years, the NDA government has not fulfilled its promise of reining in price rise. The prices of both food items and petroleum products are sky-rocketing. There is a growing anger against the Modi government for failing to check the prices.
3. GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
The Modi government is facing flak for the dip in the country's GDP growth to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent during April-June as manufacturing slowed ahead of the GST launch amid demonetisation effect. The expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) was 6.1 per cent in the preceding quarter and 7.9 per cent in the same period last fiscal. The previous low of 4.6 per cent was recorded in January-March 2014.
Gross value added (GVA) in the manufacturing sector fell sharply to 1.2 per cent, from 10.7 per cent year on year, as the businesses focussed more on clearing inventories rather than production ahead of the July 1 launch of GST.
A separate set of official data showed that growth of eight core sectors slowed to 2.4 per cent in July due to contraction in output of crude oil, refinery products, fertiliser and cement.
The data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) came in below market expectations, which predicted it to be at least a tad higher than January-March growth figure of 6.1 per cent.
According to the data, there was a slowdown in the agricultural sector, too. GVA in the first quarter was 2.3 per cent compared to 2.5 per cent in the similar period last year.
Economic activities that registered growth of over 7 per cent in the first quarter on an annual basis are trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting, public administration, defence and other services and electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services.
This actual economic situation is a contrast to the picture that had been painted by the BJP before the 2014 lok Sabha elections. Under the sub-head 'Economic revival', the party's election manifesto had said: "When the NDA Government completed its tenure the baton was handed over to the incoming UPA Government with GDP growth nearing double digit in 2004.
"Inflation was under control. Fiscal Deficit and Current Account Deficit were kept within limit and the overall economy was showing robust fundamentals. In contrast, now at the end of Congress-led UPA regime, the GDP growth has plummeted to very low of 4.8 per cent, the inflation and price rise beyond control, the fiscal deficit and current account deficit in the alarm zone, and the manufacturing sector facing a recession."
The present GDP growth of 5.7 per cent is less than a per cent more than what the NDA had inherited from the Manmohan Singh government. It may be an extremely difficult task for the Modi government to exceptionally improve upon the economic condition in about a year's time.
4. GST (Goods & Services Tax)
The benefits of Goods and Services Tax (GST) notwithstanding, the historic economic legislation is putting the common traders, who are generally believed to be BJP supporters, to immense hardship. The traders are generally complaining against the tax rates besides the highly complex and cumbersome documentation process.
The main grievances of the traders are that they are having problems in logging in, getting digital signature approved, migrating to GST Network (GSTN) because of non-validation of PAN (Permanent Account Number) and determining the Harmonised System of Nomenclature (HSN) code and, hence, the tax rates of commodities.
With a significant number of traders, most of them being BJP voters, being unhappy with GST roll out, the ruling party may suffer electorally.
5. SATURATION AND ANTI-INCUMBENCY
The BJP has reached a saturation point in several states winning almost all the seats. The states include Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. Besides, it has hardly any chance to improve its tally in some states, for instance, in the south. With such a prospect, it would be extremely difficult for the BJP to improve upon its 2014 Lok Sabha elections' tally.
Apart from the saturation level, the anti-incumbency, both at the Centre and in the BJP-ruled states, may also have a role to play in limited the performance of the party in 2019.
In view of these factors, the BJP may only hope to only win the next general elections. Performing better than 2014 in the present circumstances may be a far cry.
Source: IndiaToday
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