Times Group's Online Survey: 79% of People say they will Vote for Modi in 2019

Times Group Survey on Modi 2019 Election

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains India's most popular leader with no competition in sight, according to a mega online survey by the Times Group.

Despite the note ban, GST and a no-holds-barred poll campaign in Gujarat, more than three quarters of respondents, in the survey conducted in nine languages across 10 Times Group media properties, said they will vote for him if Lok Sabha polls were held today.

Similarly, 79% of those surveyed said a Modi-led government is currently the most likely scenario in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The three-part survey was conducted online over 72 hours between December 12 and 15 with over half a million responses.

According to the survey, only 20% said they would vote for Congress president-elect Rahul Gandhi in a head-to-head contest with Modi today.

However, while a significant 58% of those surveyed remain unimpressed with him, 34% respondents said the Gandhi scion has been able to establish anew connect with voters.

But what is worrisome for Congress is that as many as 73% of the respondents said they don't consider the party an alternative even after Rahul's elevation.

Does that mean if Rahul were out of the picture, Congress will fare somewhat better? Not really, according to the survey.

While 38% of those polled said they wouldn't vote for Congress if a non-Gandhi were to be its leader, almost an equal number (37%) said they would vote for the party if another leader from outside the family were to lead it.

While Rahul may or may not be winning the personality contest, the larger-than-life figure of Modi appears to be key for those who are in favour of BJP. Consider this - 31% of those surveyed said they wouldn't vote for BJP if he weren't to be its PM candidate. This means that while BJP has retained its core constituency (48% said they would vote for the party even if he was not the leader), PM Modi remains its premium brand and adds a sizeable number to its vote base.

Each response in the survey has been geo-tagged to city and state. The results were concealed from voters till after voting ended.

Source: TOI

5 Challenges before BJP & Modi Government in 2019 Lok Sabha Polls

The BJP seems to be not just sure of the prospects of winning the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but also over-confident of emerging victorious. However, the party seems to be overlooking the several challenges it is facing on the ground.

Ahead of the BJP's National Executive meeting in here on Monday, BJP president Amit Shah, in a tweet, said, "Keep watching, the 2019 (Lok Sabha election) victory would be bigger than the previous one (2014)."

In the same meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is learnt to have asked the party to stop thinking about the forthcoming Lok Sabha election and instead focus on serving and reaching out to the people. He is reported to have told his partymen that the party "should be taken beyond elections" and made an "instrument of mass participation".

These statements betray confidence on the part of the BJP's two top leaders over the performance of the party. But the fact may be that the BJP and the NDA government face several challenges on the ground.

There could be only two reasons why Shah would have presented such a rosy picture of the party for the 2019 general elections - either he is unaware of the challenges the party and the government are facing or it would be to galvanise the party cadre.

As matters stand today, there are two scenarios if the challenges are taken into account - BJP may lose the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or, even if it wins, the victory would not be greater than that in the 2014 general elections.

Here are the challenges before the BJP and the Modi government:

1. JOBS

Rising unemployment is one of the biggest challenges of the Modi government. It is indeed leading to discontentment among the youth. Unemployment may have been one of the significant reasons why the students' wing of the BJP's parent organisation RSS suffered setbacks in the recently-held Delhi University and JNU students' union elections.

Due to loss of job opportunities, the youth appear to have got disenchanted with the Modi government. The widespread support that recent agitations in some reputed educational institutions, including in Benaras Hindu University (BHU), received may have been a manifestation of the growing insecurity among the youth.

The BJP manifesto for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections had criticised the previous Congress-led UPA government stating that the country has been dragged through 10 years of jobless growth. It promised that under the broader economic revival, BJP will accord high priority to job creation and opportunities for entrepreneurship.

Talking about the party's strategy, the manifesto said the government's focus would be on job creation and entrepreneurship, in both rural and urban areas, transforming employment exchanges into career centres, connecting the youth with job opportunities in a transparent and effective manner through the use of technology as well as providing counselling and training.

2. PRICE RISE

Rise in the prices of essential commodities, including petroleum products, was one of the main reasons behind the defeat of the Manmohan Singh. Riding on the sentiments of the voters, the BJP had lashed out at the UPA government on the issue of price rise and promised to take several steps to rein it in.

The BJP, in its manifesto, said: "Runaway food inflation has crippled household budgets and contributed to the overall inflationary trend under the Congress-led UPA's watch. Even worse, the food and nutritional security of millions is threatened.

"However, the Congress-led UPA government has remained insensitive and indifferent to the plight of the people; tying itself into knots with short-term, misdirected steps. The committee of Chief Ministers, headed by Narendra Modi, has already submitted a report on food inflation in 2011. The report was unfortunately not acted upon by the Congress-led UPA Government," it said.

The manifesto further said: "The BJP-led NDA Government's record of holding the prices is a demonstration of our commitment to break the vicious cycle of high inflation and high interest rates."

The party had promised a number of steps to check prices such as putting in place strict measures and special courts to stop hoarding and black marketing, setting up a price stabilisation fund, unbundling FCI operations into procurement, storage and distribution for greater efficiency, leveraging on technology to disseminate real time data, especially to farmers on production, prices, imports, stocks and overall availability; evolving a single 'National Agriculture Market', promote and supporting area specific crops and vegetables linked to food habits of the people.

Despite the elapse of about three-and-a-half years, the NDA government has not fulfilled its promise of reining in price rise. The prices of both food items and petroleum products are sky-rocketing. There is a growing anger against the Modi government for failing to check the prices.

3. GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

The Modi government is facing flak for the dip in the country's GDP growth to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent during April-June as manufacturing slowed ahead of the GST launch amid demonetisation effect. The expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) was 6.1 per cent in the preceding quarter and 7.9 per cent in the same period last fiscal. The previous low of 4.6 per cent was recorded in January-March 2014.

Gross value added (GVA) in the manufacturing sector fell sharply to 1.2 per cent, from 10.7 per cent year on year, as the businesses focussed more on clearing inventories rather than production ahead of the July 1 launch of GST.

A separate set of official data showed that growth of eight core sectors slowed to 2.4 per cent in July due to contraction in output of crude oil, refinery products, fertiliser and cement.

The data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) came in below market expectations, which predicted it to be at least a tad higher than January-March growth figure of 6.1 per cent.

According to the data, there was a slowdown in the agricultural sector, too. GVA in the first quarter was 2.3 per cent compared to 2.5 per cent in the similar period last year.

Economic activities that registered growth of over 7 per cent in the first quarter on an annual basis are trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting, public administration, defence and other services and electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services.

This actual economic situation is a contrast to the picture that had been painted by the BJP before the 2014 lok Sabha elections. Under the sub-head 'Economic revival', the party's election manifesto had said: "When the NDA Government completed its tenure the baton was handed over to the incoming UPA Government with GDP growth nearing double digit in 2004.

"Inflation was under control. Fiscal Deficit and Current Account Deficit were kept within limit and the overall economy was showing robust fundamentals. In contrast, now at the end of Congress-led UPA regime, the GDP growth has plummeted to very low of 4.8 per cent, the inflation and price rise beyond control, the fiscal deficit and current account deficit in the alarm zone, and the manufacturing sector facing a recession."

The present GDP growth of 5.7 per cent is less than a per cent more than what the NDA had inherited from the Manmohan Singh government. It may be an extremely difficult task for the Modi government to exceptionally improve upon the economic condition in about a year's time.

4. GST (Goods & Services Tax)

The benefits of Goods and Services Tax (GST) notwithstanding, the historic economic legislation is putting the common traders, who are generally believed to be BJP supporters, to immense hardship. The traders are generally complaining against the tax rates besides the highly complex and cumbersome documentation process.

The main grievances of the traders are that they are having problems in logging in, getting digital signature approved, migrating to GST Network (GSTN) because of non-validation of PAN (Permanent Account Number) and determining the Harmonised System of Nomenclature (HSN) code and, hence, the tax rates of commodities.

With a significant number of traders, most of them being BJP voters, being unhappy with GST roll out, the ruling party may suffer electorally.

5. SATURATION AND ANTI-INCUMBENCY

The BJP has reached a saturation point in several states winning almost all the seats. The states include Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. Besides, it has hardly any chance to improve its tally in some states, for instance, in the south. With such a prospect, it would be extremely difficult for the BJP to improve upon its 2014 Lok Sabha elections' tally.

Apart from the saturation level, the anti-incumbency, both at the Centre and in the BJP-ruled states, may also have a role to play in limited the performance of the party in 2019.

In view of these factors, the BJP may only hope to only win the next general elections. Performing better than 2014 in the present circumstances may be a far cry.
Source: IndiaToday

Desh Ka Mood: ABP News-CSDS Survey, NDA Projected to Win 331 Seats

NEW DELHI: Narendra Modi clearly appears to become the next prime minister and the ruling National Democratic Alliance led by him would ascend to power with 331 seats if Lok Sabha elections were held now, a survey conducted by ABP News and Lokniti-CSDS predicted on Monday.

The United Progressive Alliance is projected to win 104 seats, which is a gain of 44 seats compared to their dismal outing in 2014 polls. The Other parties in the fray are likely to get 108 seats, 40 seats lesser than what was achieved earlier.

The study from 142 constituencies in the eastern states shows that there would be a gain of 16 seats for the NDA here. Major gains in Assam, West Bengal and Assam. A three seat rise for the UPA while drop of 19 seats for Other parties.

In the crucial North Indian states (151 constituencies), the survey predicts a loss of 15 seats for the NDA which takes its tally to 116 seats. UPA which is likely to gain 9 seats in the region is projected to win mere 15 seats in total. Other parties get 20 here, a gain of 6 seats.

In Southern India’s 132 constituencies, there is a gain for the UPA with 29 seats taking its tally to 52. Thirty nine in totality for the NDA and forty six seats for the regional parties.

In Western and Central India, the NDA is set to take the lion’s share with 105 out of 118 seats. Survey shows UPA winning 12 seats in these regions.

The nationwide Survey (Mood of the Nation) among 11,373 randomly sampled voters in 19 States has found that nearly seven in every ten voters (69 percent) are satisfied with the performance of Narendra Modi as prime minister. This satisfaction rating is higher than the satisfaction ratings recorded for Modi’s predecessor Manmohan Singh at the end of the first two years of the UPA I and II governments.

More significantly, the Mood of the Nation Survey has found that in the event of a Lok Sabha election taking place now, Prime Minister Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would secure yet another convincing victory, quite similar to the one it notched up in 2014. The Survey found the BJP to be the vote choice of 39 percent or close to four of every ten voters. This is eight percentage points greater than the vote share secured by the party in the Lok Sabha elections held three years ago. The BJP’s allies are expected to get 6 percent votes taking the ruling alliance’s vote share to about 45 percent. This significant vote increase, however, may not translate into too many additional seats for the BJP as most of its major vote gains are in those States where it had already scaled the peak in terms of seats in 2014.

In fact, it may actually lose a few seats in these stronghold States as the vote share of the opposition parties is highly concentrated. The Indian National Congress (Congress) which slumped to its worst ever electoral performance in a national election in 2014 continues to be in dire straits in terms of popularity and is finding it difficult to revive. If elections to the Lok Sabha were to happen today, the party that governed India for 55 years is expected to secure only 21 percent votes, an increase of just two percentage points since its disastrous performance in 2014. Congress’s allies seem to be in no great shape either with only 6 percent of the voters indicating their vote preference for them.

Except for Punjab and Telangana, the Survey did not find any other state where the BJP’s popularity has lessened compared to elections held three years ago. In some States, the BJP is so far ahead in the race at the moment that even a coming together of two or three opposition parties may not fully bridge the gap. Not only has the BJP consolidated and extended its appeal in northern, central and western India where its main competitor is mostly the Congress, it has also made some stunning gains in the eastern part of the country where regional parties dominate.

In Odisha, for instance, the Survey found the BJP to be leading the Biju Janata Dal that has been ruling the State for nearly two decades. In West Bengal, meanwhile, it was found to be placed a fairly close second behind the Trinamool Congress. If in 2014, most of BJP’s victories came at the expense of the Congress, the next election in 2019 could well see the BJP posing a serious threat to the dominance of India’s regional parties as well.
Source: ABP News - www.abplive.in

Congress' Dalit Outreach Strategy for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

To counter BJP's Mission 2019, the Congress has charted out a strategy to reach out to Dalits and other marginal classes.

The Congress' SC/ST department head K Raju spoke exclusively to India Today on party's "Mission Dalit".

HERE'S WHAT HE SAID:

1. Keeping 2019 in mind, the Congress is closely looking at our 84 reserved constituencies. The Congress is paying special attention to these constituencies.

2. We are trying to identify who are the candidates who have confidence of Dalits as well as non-Dalits and what are the issues in those constituencies that needs to be addressed.

3. Congress' counter to BJP's mission 2019 is the "Constitution of India" given by Baba Sahib Dr BR Ambedkar. He has given the rights to all. Need of the hour is that the Dalits across the country protect the constitution so that rights guaranteed to them are safeguarded.

4. Reservation will be one of the main issue. Will tell Dalits that BJP has its own plan to do away with constitution and they have already started undoing the reservation.

5. During Congress' rule in Centre and states, party got many plans, schemes, program and legislations that provided access to education, health services, employment and land to Dalits. Will make Dalits realise that too. 6. Dr Ambedkar's legacy belongs to Congress. Congress has lived Baba Sahib's ideology. Baba Sahib's vision is Congress' mission. We will deliver this message to Dalits across the country.

7. Issue on which Congress will corner BJP will include fund allocation too. In the current three and and half years of BJP rule, Centre's fund allocation has come down. Present government has dropped the important SC policies. We will fight against that.

8. In previous UPA government, we had introduced constitutional safeguard for Dalit employee promotions. But that too didn't happen despite the BJP trying to be Messiah of Dalits.

9. The Congress' campaign would adopt various methods like seminars, conferences, nukkar sabhas and has planned household visits by party workers to convey the messages.

10. The strategy would include spreading the message that all issues concerning Dalits are not being given due importance by the BJP. "The issues will be raised during Congress' Dalit campaign which include reaching out to every household to make them realise the truth."
Source: IndiaToday

BJP on Mission Mode for 2019, Sets New Targets for Next General Elections

On the concluding day of the two-day National Executive meet, the BJP political resolution indicated that it would focus on adding new socio-groups into its fold even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to attract some in the Muslim community, especially women and the poor.

Keeping its thrust on development agenda, the BJP has embarked on a mission to retain power in 2019, fine-tuning its strategy to woo the poor and a section of Muslims to expand its base.

On the concluding day of the two-day National Executive meet, the BJP political resolution indicated that it would focus on adding new socio-groups into its fold even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to attract some in the Muslim community, especially women and the poor.

Dubbing Triple Talaq a "bad social practice", Modi said such things can be ended by social awakening but stressed that the Bharatiya Janata Party didn't want a conflict on this issue.

Modi's observation came at his concluding remarks.

"As far as social justice is concerned, our Muslim sisters should also get justice. There should not be injustice to them. No one should be exploited," Union Minister Nitin Gadkari quoted Modi as saying.

Modi added: "We should not allow conflict in the society. We don't want any conflict in Muslim society over the issue. We need to end such bad practices by awakening the society."

Earlier, making an intervention during the discussion over the resolution passed on a new OBC Commission, Modi said even Muslims have backwards and marginalised and the government must address their concerns.

BJP sources said Modi asked the party leaders and workers to hold district-level meetings over the issues of backward Muslims and women.

Modi also expressed his desire to rid India of social and economic inequities.

Accusing the opposition of concocting issues, Modi said: "It seems the opposition manufactures these issues in some factories. During the Delhi election, Church attacks was highlighted and during the Bihar polls 'Award Wapsi' was the issue. And right now it is EVM."

The Prime Minister told party workers to stick to "positive approach".

Earlier, two resolutions were passed by the National Executive focusing on the poor and backward communities in the society.

Coming down heavily on the Congress and other opposition parties for blocking in the Rajya Sabha a bill to grant constitutional status to the OBC Commission, the BJP accused them of depriving the poor of their benefits.

Human Resource and Development Minister Prakash Javadekar said: "These parties have always suppressed the interests of the backward classes and only given them false hopes."

He said the manner in which the bill was opposed exposed their attitude towards backward classes.

The resolution was moved by BJP's OBC MP Hukumdev Narayan Yadav and seconded by Chief Ministers like Raghubar Das of Jharkhand, Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh and Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan.

The BJP's focus on OBCs and Modi's remarks on the backwardness of Muslim society and Triple Talaq is seen as the party's effort to woo these social groups ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP also has to face assembly elections in Gujarat, Himachal, Karnataka and Odisha. BJP President Amit Shah has begun micro management for these contests.

Where the BJP is not a major player, it is targeting new social groups.

Shah has asked party workers to go the extra mile to strengthen the party in 120 Lok Sabha constituencies where it is weak. Noting that Modi had worked hard and translated his words into action, the political resolution said: "The BJP calls upon the people of our country to take a pledge to form a government under the leadership of Narendra Modi in 2019 in order to have the continuity of development and welfare policies for all."
Source: MoneyControl.com

NDA & Opposition Begin to Gear Up for 2019 General Elections

The stakes are high and this is showing up in the recent moves of our principal political parties on both sides of the divide. The ruling NDA, led by the BJP and dominated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who appears to be impregnable after his famous victory in Uttar Pradesh, has already begun taking the first steps toward consolidating the incumbent alliance, not taking anything for granted and leaving nothing to last-minute firefighting.

Its scattered opponents too appear at last to have understood that unity moves do not fructify easily, and have set the process in motion long before the next Lok Sabha election in 2019.

The first formal step in this direction was taken on Wednesday, as the Budget Session of Parliament drew to a close, when a delegation of 13 parties, with the Congress being the largest in Parliament and led by party president Sonia Gandhi and former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, walked to Rashtrapati Bhavan to give a memorandum to President Pranab Mukherjee to highlight the alleged authoritarian conduct of the government, including the passing of measures as “money bills” in Parliament to bypass scrutiny by the Rajya Sabha, where the government is in a minority.

The meeting of the NDA the previous day, attended by the PM, would have been a shot in the arm for the ruling alliance. Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena chief, not only attended the meeting but called Mr Modi “elder brother”. In the past three years, the BJP’s oldest ally has been harrying the saffron party at every turn, but this was forgotten at the meeting. For the BJP and the NDA, which will be reduced to nothing without the former, this cannot but be a sign of hope.

The fact that the BJP is on a marked winning streak under Mr Modi’s leadership has doubtless been a factor in helping slippery parts unify within the NDA. Its opponents have had no luck on that count and are still trying to forget mutual rivalries and present a common face to the BJP, although this may take some doing.

Thus, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress was represented at Rashtrapati Bhavan along with its bête noire, the CPI(M) and the other Left parties. From Uttar Pradesh, there was the SP and BSP, parties with a long history of mutual hostility.

The victory of the “mahagathbandhan” in Bihar last year had led some to believe that the Congress, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and CM Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) would strive together to act in parliamentary politics, but this expectation turned out to be exaggerated.

It may, therefore, be too early to think that the Opposition parties that met the President will sort out their ambitions and mutual rivalries right away. Politics is a complicated process.
Source: AsianAge.com

NDA to Fight 2019 Lok Sabha Polls under PM Modi’s Leadership

"Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan made the proposal for fighting Lok Sabha election under Modi and it was accepted unanimously," the BJP leader added.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on Monday passed a resolution to fight 2019 Lok Sabha elections under leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sources said.

“To continue with the development and poor welfare programs, NDA urges the citizens of the country to be determined to give huge majority to NDA under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019,” the resolution said.

Earlier, a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader, who attended the meeting at the Pravasi Bharatiya Kendra at Chanakyapuri in New Delhi’s diplomatic enclave said, “The NDA leaders decided to work together to succeed in 2019 Lok Sabha elections under Modi’s leadership.”

“Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan made the proposal for fighting Lok Sabha election under Modi and it was accepted unanimously,” the BJP leader added.

The NDA meeting was attended by 33 parties including Shiv Sena and Akali Dal but there was no discussion on the upcoming presidential or vice presidential elections.

Shiv Sena Chief Uddhav Thakrey and Akali Dal’s Prakash Singh Badal represented their parties.

Addressing the media, Financial Minister Arun Jaitley said the NDA meeting endorsed the policies of the government specially its “pro-poor policy”.

“Despite the bad shape of economy, the government did a good job and headed towards development. There was not a single corruption charge against the government in its last three years’ reign,” he said.

The minister also said that new allies have joined NDA and this is the symbol of this government’s popularity.

Asked if there was any discussion about the presidential elections, the minister categorically denied it, saying “No”.

Speaking on relationship with Shiv Sena, Jaitley said, “Shiv Sena is the oldest BJP ally. At times some issues come when they don’t agree but Uddhavji today attended the meeting and he was positive.

” The NDA also hailed Modi for BJP’s stunning victory in recent assembly polls.

“The BJP’s victory in recent assembly polls is a mandate on pro poor policies and public welfare schemes of NDA government. The results established Modi as most popular Prime Minister of the country after independence,” the statement said.

TDP Chief and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu said that India needs a stable government for sustainable development.

“India is only economy which can achieve double digit growth. Even China can’t. This is possible only under Modi’s leadership. Sustainability will come with stable government,” he said.
Source: IndianExpress