The sudden clamour among allies of the BJP for discussions on whom to project as the common NDA candidate for prime ministership is understandable. But it is also a trap for both, BJP and allies. It cannot benefit either of them in the short run, and the current ambiguity is important.
Take the case of the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar. The call for discussions is actually a ploy to send minorities the message that it will oppose Narendra Modi, if he becomes the BJP’s choice for PM. But the JD(U) can hardly want to rock the current coalition in the state which has yielded high dividends to both parties.
Nitish Kumar’s ambitions may be at variance with Modi’s, but neither will benefit from a rush to divorce. It makes sense for both partners to delay the inevitable. For both have to prepare for it.
Then we have had the Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray seeking discussions with the BJP on the same subject. Uddhav has said, "We do not want the kind of confusion we had during the presidential elections about NDA’s candidate. BJP should initiate a discussion with allies so that there’s absolute clarity."
My guess is the right time would be around six months ahead of a scheduled May 2014 poll unless a political accident causes an election earlier.
The dilemmas the BJP has to solve about Modi are thus the following:
One is the timing of the announcement, and the precise role he is to be given before the next poll.
Two, decisions on which allies to forsake, and which ones to keep. The real dilemmas relate to Maharashtra and Bihar, for elsewhere the BJP would largely have to go it alone. In Maharashtra, the best option would be a three-way seat-sharing deal with both Senas for the Lok Sabha poll. In Bihar, the BJP has to sacrifice the alliance and prepare for some loss of seats.
Three, even if the BJP were to make up its mind on exiting the Bihar alliance, an early announcement on Modi means making him vulnerable to more dirty tricks from the central government. A clearly announced Modi candidature would enable the Congress to start targeting him in every way – something it would not be able to do when election fever is at a higher pitch, as the electorate will see through the game.
Four, the long-term dilemma relates to the BJP-RSS link-up. The problem is more real for the RSS than the BJP, for the Sangh needs the BJP more than the other way round. The RSS knows that political parties wield more power than social organisations, and this is why it has been trying to inflict its choice of leader on the BJP. A BJP under Modi would be more powerful than a BJP under any other leader because Modi has a direct appeal to the electorate and the BJP cadre. This is what the Sangh fears most.
Five, Modi himself has to take a call on when he can partially delink from Gujarat. If he is projected as the PM candidate, he can’t simultaneously be full-time CM of Gujarat in practical terms. There may be no legal bar on being CM and campaigning for the party in national elections, but at the very least, he would have to anoint a No 2 in Gujarat while he becomes a largely absentee CM during the campaigning.
The best guess one can make is that Modi’s candidature will be announced around October, after the Delhi elections. That will give Modi a clear six months to get the BJP fighting fit.
Source: FirstPost.Com
Take the case of the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar. The call for discussions is actually a ploy to send minorities the message that it will oppose Narendra Modi, if he becomes the BJP’s choice for PM. But the JD(U) can hardly want to rock the current coalition in the state which has yielded high dividends to both parties.
Nitish Kumar’s ambitions may be at variance with Modi’s, but neither will benefit from a rush to divorce. It makes sense for both partners to delay the inevitable. For both have to prepare for it.
Then we have had the Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray seeking discussions with the BJP on the same subject. Uddhav has said, "We do not want the kind of confusion we had during the presidential elections about NDA’s candidate. BJP should initiate a discussion with allies so that there’s absolute clarity."
| The only ally who has not demurred at all about Modi is the Akali Dal. The Dal-BJP combine has been an all-weather alliance, given the solid Sikh-Hindu demographics that the alliance addresses in the Punjab electorate. To the Akalis, who are themselves a religion-based party, it makes no difference who runs the BJP. Modi is as welcome as anyone else. |  |
My guess is the right time would be around six months ahead of a scheduled May 2014 poll unless a political accident causes an election earlier.
The dilemmas the BJP has to solve about Modi are thus the following:
One is the timing of the announcement, and the precise role he is to be given before the next poll.
Two, decisions on which allies to forsake, and which ones to keep. The real dilemmas relate to Maharashtra and Bihar, for elsewhere the BJP would largely have to go it alone. In Maharashtra, the best option would be a three-way seat-sharing deal with both Senas for the Lok Sabha poll. In Bihar, the BJP has to sacrifice the alliance and prepare for some loss of seats.
Three, even if the BJP were to make up its mind on exiting the Bihar alliance, an early announcement on Modi means making him vulnerable to more dirty tricks from the central government. A clearly announced Modi candidature would enable the Congress to start targeting him in every way – something it would not be able to do when election fever is at a higher pitch, as the electorate will see through the game.
Four, the long-term dilemma relates to the BJP-RSS link-up. The problem is more real for the RSS than the BJP, for the Sangh needs the BJP more than the other way round. The RSS knows that political parties wield more power than social organisations, and this is why it has been trying to inflict its choice of leader on the BJP. A BJP under Modi would be more powerful than a BJP under any other leader because Modi has a direct appeal to the electorate and the BJP cadre. This is what the Sangh fears most.
Five, Modi himself has to take a call on when he can partially delink from Gujarat. If he is projected as the PM candidate, he can’t simultaneously be full-time CM of Gujarat in practical terms. There may be no legal bar on being CM and campaigning for the party in national elections, but at the very least, he would have to anoint a No 2 in Gujarat while he becomes a largely absentee CM during the campaigning.
The best guess one can make is that Modi’s candidature will be announced around October, after the Delhi elections. That will give Modi a clear six months to get the BJP fighting fit.
Source: FirstPost.Com
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