NEW DELHI: Narendra Modi clearly appears to become the next prime minister and the ruling National Democratic Alliance led by him would ascend to power with 331 seats if Lok Sabha elections were held now, a survey conducted by ABP News and Lokniti-CSDS predicted on Monday.
The United Progressive Alliance is projected to win 104 seats, which is a gain of 44 seats compared to their dismal outing in 2014 polls. The Other parties in the fray are likely to get 108 seats, 40 seats lesser than what was achieved earlier.
The study from 142 constituencies in the eastern states shows that there would be a gain of 16 seats for the NDA here. Major gains in Assam, West Bengal and Assam. A three seat rise for the UPA while drop of 19 seats for Other parties.
In the crucial North Indian states (151 constituencies), the survey predicts a loss of 15 seats for the NDA which takes its tally to 116 seats. UPA which is likely to gain 9 seats in the region is projected to win mere 15 seats in total. Other parties get 20 here, a gain of 6 seats.
In Southern India’s 132 constituencies, there is a gain for the UPA with 29 seats taking its tally to 52. Thirty nine in totality for the NDA and forty six seats for the regional parties.
In Western and Central India, the NDA is set to take the lion’s share with 105 out of 118 seats. Survey shows UPA winning 12 seats in these regions.
The nationwide Survey (Mood of the Nation) among 11,373 randomly sampled voters in 19 States has found that nearly seven in every ten voters (69 percent) are satisfied with the performance of Narendra Modi as prime minister. This satisfaction rating is higher than the satisfaction ratings recorded for Modi’s predecessor Manmohan Singh at the end of the first two years of the UPA I and II governments.
More significantly, the Mood of the Nation Survey has found that in the event of a Lok Sabha election taking place now, Prime Minister Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would secure yet another convincing victory, quite similar to the one it notched up in 2014. The Survey found the BJP to be the vote choice of 39 percent or close to four of every ten voters. This is eight percentage points greater than the vote share secured by the party in the Lok Sabha elections held three years ago. The BJP’s allies are expected to get 6 percent votes taking the ruling alliance’s vote share to about 45 percent. This significant vote increase, however, may not translate into too many additional seats for the BJP as most of its major vote gains are in those States where it had already scaled the peak in terms of seats in 2014.
In fact, it may actually lose a few seats in these stronghold States as the vote share of the opposition parties is highly concentrated. The Indian National Congress (Congress) which slumped to its worst ever electoral performance in a national election in 2014 continues to be in dire straits in terms of popularity and is finding it difficult to revive. If elections to the Lok Sabha were to happen today, the party that governed India for 55 years is expected to secure only 21 percent votes, an increase of just two percentage points since its disastrous performance in 2014. Congress’s allies seem to be in no great shape either with only 6 percent of the voters indicating their vote preference for them.
Except for Punjab and Telangana, the Survey did not find any other state where the BJP’s popularity has lessened compared to elections held three years ago. In some States, the BJP is so far ahead in the race at the moment that even a coming together of two or three opposition parties may not fully bridge the gap. Not only has the BJP consolidated and extended its appeal in northern, central and western India where its main competitor is mostly the Congress, it has also made some stunning gains in the eastern part of the country where regional parties dominate.
In Odisha, for instance, the Survey found the BJP to be leading the Biju Janata Dal that has been ruling the State for nearly two decades. In West Bengal, meanwhile, it was found to be placed a fairly close second behind the Trinamool Congress. If in 2014, most of BJP’s victories came at the expense of the Congress, the next election in 2019 could well see the BJP posing a serious threat to the dominance of India’s regional parties as well.
Source: ABP News - www.abplive.in
The United Progressive Alliance is projected to win 104 seats, which is a gain of 44 seats compared to their dismal outing in 2014 polls. The Other parties in the fray are likely to get 108 seats, 40 seats lesser than what was achieved earlier.
The study from 142 constituencies in the eastern states shows that there would be a gain of 16 seats for the NDA here. Major gains in Assam, West Bengal and Assam. A three seat rise for the UPA while drop of 19 seats for Other parties.
In the crucial North Indian states (151 constituencies), the survey predicts a loss of 15 seats for the NDA which takes its tally to 116 seats. UPA which is likely to gain 9 seats in the region is projected to win mere 15 seats in total. Other parties get 20 here, a gain of 6 seats.
In Southern India’s 132 constituencies, there is a gain for the UPA with 29 seats taking its tally to 52. Thirty nine in totality for the NDA and forty six seats for the regional parties.
In Western and Central India, the NDA is set to take the lion’s share with 105 out of 118 seats. Survey shows UPA winning 12 seats in these regions.
The nationwide Survey (Mood of the Nation) among 11,373 randomly sampled voters in 19 States has found that nearly seven in every ten voters (69 percent) are satisfied with the performance of Narendra Modi as prime minister. This satisfaction rating is higher than the satisfaction ratings recorded for Modi’s predecessor Manmohan Singh at the end of the first two years of the UPA I and II governments.
More significantly, the Mood of the Nation Survey has found that in the event of a Lok Sabha election taking place now, Prime Minister Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would secure yet another convincing victory, quite similar to the one it notched up in 2014. The Survey found the BJP to be the vote choice of 39 percent or close to four of every ten voters. This is eight percentage points greater than the vote share secured by the party in the Lok Sabha elections held three years ago. The BJP’s allies are expected to get 6 percent votes taking the ruling alliance’s vote share to about 45 percent. This significant vote increase, however, may not translate into too many additional seats for the BJP as most of its major vote gains are in those States where it had already scaled the peak in terms of seats in 2014.
In fact, it may actually lose a few seats in these stronghold States as the vote share of the opposition parties is highly concentrated. The Indian National Congress (Congress) which slumped to its worst ever electoral performance in a national election in 2014 continues to be in dire straits in terms of popularity and is finding it difficult to revive. If elections to the Lok Sabha were to happen today, the party that governed India for 55 years is expected to secure only 21 percent votes, an increase of just two percentage points since its disastrous performance in 2014. Congress’s allies seem to be in no great shape either with only 6 percent of the voters indicating their vote preference for them.
Except for Punjab and Telangana, the Survey did not find any other state where the BJP’s popularity has lessened compared to elections held three years ago. In some States, the BJP is so far ahead in the race at the moment that even a coming together of two or three opposition parties may not fully bridge the gap. Not only has the BJP consolidated and extended its appeal in northern, central and western India where its main competitor is mostly the Congress, it has also made some stunning gains in the eastern part of the country where regional parties dominate.
In Odisha, for instance, the Survey found the BJP to be leading the Biju Janata Dal that has been ruling the State for nearly two decades. In West Bengal, meanwhile, it was found to be placed a fairly close second behind the Trinamool Congress. If in 2014, most of BJP’s victories came at the expense of the Congress, the next election in 2019 could well see the BJP posing a serious threat to the dominance of India’s regional parties as well.
Source: ABP News - www.abplive.in
